The whole "you are more likely" BS came from a mathematically flawed, statistically and academically suspect study done by Kellerman, and if you put "Kellerman" into google you can find a bunch of stuff.
The worst part is that most of the examples in the study were suicides.
Also in some of the cited cases the gun used in the crime was not owned by the person living there... think drug deals gone bad, and similar stuff.
Here's one:
Kellerman Debunked!
Also, there was no attempt to find examples of where a gun was used to protect, for which estimates range from 1 million to 2.5 million times per year in the US.