AR Prices - 10 days of data

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  • valmoth

    Plinker
    Rating - 100%
    3   0   0
    Apr 29, 2012
    93
    6
    Indianapolis
    On December 28th I decided to track the final sales price of ARs to determine when we may peak on the current crazy price situation. I tagged bids on GB for a standard Bushmaster 16" E2S NIB-- no used guns, no special add-ons like optics, just a vanilla .223 that would typically retail prior to the crisis at something under $1000.

    I took an average of those bids on days where I was able to find at least six representative transactions that closed for this rifle. I did not include any data where the final bid was under the reserve, nor did I include any data from sellers who did not have at least one point of feedback.

    The averages over the last ten days are as follows:

    avgpricejan6_zps2e3c165a.jpg


    As you can see, the prices peaked on December 29th, and have been decreasing (on average) through January 6. Today the average price for six of these representative transactions was $1507, approximately 16% from the peak average price of $1799 seen on December 29th.

    I intend to track this data another 10 days to see if this trend continues, or if we see a spike back up as we hear about the likelihood of legislation passing in Washington.

    For those interested, the lowest sales price in the past ten days was $1260, and the highest was $2,275.
     

    Hookeye

    Grandmaster
    Rating - 100%
    4   0   0
    Dec 19, 2011
    15,039
    77
    armpit of the midwest
    Interesting.
    Too bad we don't know the income level of all purchasers, geographic locations and other.
    Xmas might have had something to do with the high start on the graph- as panic and gifting might have been intertwined.
     

    valmoth

    Plinker
    Rating - 100%
    3   0   0
    Apr 29, 2012
    93
    6
    Indianapolis
    My guess is that anyone who HAD to have an AR moved quickly- like in the first seven days after the Sandy Hook tragedy. This caused prices to peak. But that volume of transactions can't be sustained; it was essentially a one-time bubble where people who had disposable income to make a purchase and felt they needed an AR did so. (for example, if you did make an AR purchase at 2x retail in the first ten days after the tragedy, it would be less likely you will purchase a second one in the second ten days).

    The good news is that these data may suggest a retraction of prices over time. Especially if the legislative threat is delayed or diluted.
     

    marcweid

    Marksman
    Rating - 100%
    2   0   0
    Mar 29, 2012
    186
    18
    Avon, IN
    My guess is that anyone who HAD to have an AR moved quickly- like in the first seven days after the Sandy Hook tragedy. This caused prices to peak. But that volume of transactions can't be sustained; it was essentially a one-time bubble where people who had disposable income to make a purchase and felt they needed an AR did so. (for example, if you did make an AR purchase at 2x retail in the first ten days after the tragedy, it would be less likely you will purchase a second one in the second ten days).

    The good news is that these data may suggest a retraction of prices over time. Especially if the legislative threat is delayed or diluted.

    Great work. I also fully agree with you on people who did purchase. I think in the long run (about 2 months) prices will be back down to normal cost and there will actually be a surplus. Everybody that ever thought they needed one has now bought one meaning the occasional buyers have now bought what the "needed".
     

    Backyardace

    Plinker
    Rating - 100%
    1   0   0
    Jun 16, 2012
    94
    8
    Thanks for taking the time to research and post.

    I think that most of the "buyers" who paid 1.5 to 2 times the normal price have to be running low on disposable income. I hope so anyway, so maybe the prices will continue to drop as the demand decreases.
     

    42769vette

    Grandmaster
    Industry Partner
    Rating - 100%
    52   0   0
    Oct 6, 2008
    15,222
    113
    south of richmond in
    On December 28th I decided to track the final sales price of ARs to determine when we may peak on the current crazy price situation. I tagged bids on GB for a standard Bushmaster 16" E2S NIB-- no used guns, no special add-ons like optics, just a vanilla .223 that would typically retail prior to the crisis at something under $1000.

    I took an average of those bids on days where I was able to find at least six representative transactions that closed for this rifle. I did not include any data where the final bid was under the reserve, nor did I include any data from sellers who did not have at least one point of feedback.

    The averages over the last ten days are as follows:

    avgpricejan6_zps2e3c165a.jpg


    As you can see, the prices peaked on December 29th, and have been decreasing (on average) through January 6. Today the average price for six of these representative transactions was $1507, approximately 16% from the peak average price of $1799 seen on December 29th.

    I intend to track this data another 10 days to see if this trend continues, or if we see a spike back up as we hear about the likelihood of legislation passing in Washington.

    For those interested, the lowest sales price in the past ten days was $1260, and the highest was $2,275.

    Are you related to lovemywoods?

    Interesting info here, thanks for the leg work
     

    lucky4034

    Master
    Rating - 100%
    13   0   0
    Jan 14, 2012
    3,789
    48
    People have run out of money and number of buyers has declined.... I notice the LGS has been able to keep AR's in stock the last 7 days. They are still selling... just not like they were. I expect AR's to go back down to normal prices by March unless a ban gets initiated... then I would expect prices to SKYROCKET.


    Sucks... I still want to build that AR-10 this year and can't find a lower anywhere.

    Hope this whole thing blows over... but that seems so unlikely. I will say... all of this panic buying has to be helpful to our cause. Money talks and a good majority of American's have spoken with their pocketbooks. That goes a long way considering you could never get gun grabbers to contribute that much to get them off the streets.
     

    Bennettjh

    Grandmaster
    Site Supporter
    Rating - 100%
    5   0   0
    Jul 8, 2012
    10,434
    113
    Columbus
    Interesting. I hope this trend continues. Good job BTW. I'm sure you have a considerable amount of time in the graph
     
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