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Thread: Normalcy bias

  1. #1
    Master smokingman's Avatar
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    Normalcy bias

    The normalcy bias, or normality bias, refers to a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects. This often results in situations where people fail to adequately prepare for a disaster, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred then it never will occur. It also results in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation.
    Possible causes

    The normalcy bias may be caused in part by the way the brain processes new data. Research suggests that even when the brain is calm, it takes 8–10 seconds to process new information. Stress slows the process, and when the brain cannot find an acceptable response to a situation, it fixates on a single solution that may or may not be correct. An evolutionary reason for this response could be that paralysis gives an animal a better chance of surviving an attack; predators are less likely to eat prey that isn't struggling.
    Effects

    The normalcy bias often results in unnecessary deaths in disaster situations. The lack of preparation for disasters often leads to inadequate shelter, supplies, and evacuation plans. Even when all these things are in place, individuals with a normalcy bias often refuse to leave their homes. Studies have shown that more than 70% of people check with others before deciding to evacuate.[2]
    The normalcy bias or the sheep effect also causes people to drastically underestimate the effects of the disaster. Therefore, they think that everything will be all right, while information from the radio, television, or neighbors gives them reason to believe there is a risk. This creates a cognitive dissonance that they then must work to eliminate. Some manage to eliminate it by refusing to believe new warnings coming in and refusing to evacuate (maintaining the normalcy bias), while others eliminate the dissonance by escaping the danger. The possibility that some may refuse to evacuate causes significant problems in disaster planning.


    Prevention

    The negative effects can be combated through the four stages of disaster response:

    • preparation, including publicly acknowledging the possibility of disaster and forming contingency plans
    • warning, including issuing clear, unambiguous, and frequent warnings and helping the public to understand and believe them
    • impact, the stage at which the contingency plans take effect and emergency services, rescue teams, and disaster relief teams work in tandem
    • aftermath, or reestablishing equilibrium after the fact by providing supplies and aid to those in need.

  2. #2
    Master smokingman's Avatar
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  3. #3
    Expert spencer rifle's Avatar
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    Sending that link to my wife, since Normalcy Bias is where she lives at present.
    Last edited by spencer rifle; 12-06-2011 at 23:07. Reason: can't construct a readable sentence
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    Expert mydoghasfleas's Avatar
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    That was a great article! Thanks for posting this. I may send aa link to some "on the fence" people I know.
    CITIZEN!! Obey your federal overlord!

  5. #5
    Master smokingman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by smokingman View Post

    An article that is worth bringing back up.Read it if you haven't

  6. #6
    Master smokingman's Avatar
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    "It is natural for man to indulge in the illusions of hope. We are apt to shut our eyes against a painful truth, and listen to the song of that siren till she transforms us into beasts...For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth, to know the worst, and to provide for it."
    --Patrick Henry
    Accept The Challenge: Normalcy Bias
    Food is wealth,health is wealth,energy is wealth,shelter is wealth;all else is illusion.

  7. #7
    Plinker Overwatch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by smokingman View Post
    "It is natural for man to indulge in the illusions of hope. We are apt to shut our eyes against a painful truth, and listen to the song of that siren till she transforms us into beasts...For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth, to know the worst, and to provide for it."
    --Patrick Henry
    Accept The Challenge: Normalcy Bias
    Here is a quote from the article the sums it up for me.

    "I would like nothing more than to have a party in 10 years with the rest of my "prepper-freak" friends where we dig out our caches and laugh our asses off about how wrong we were. "You bought HOW MANY rolls of toilet paper?!" How we missed this one by a country mile."

    I can't WAIT to be wrong. But I don't think I am. So I prepare.
    Last edited by Overwatch; 08-13-2014 at 14:41. Reason: spelling
    Slow is Smooth. Smooth is fast.

  8. #8
    Expert Yeah's Avatar
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    Normalcy bias is generally considered a modern interpretation of the boy who cried wolf. In that light one might consider that constant vague open ended predictions of doom that don't come to fruition, a tendency share by both Homeland Security and INGO's smokingman, exacerbate the condition rather than alleviate it, calling into question their objective.
    Playing the preference points game...

  9. #9
    Plinker
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    Interesting article but what's with this sentence from the OP "An evolutionary reason for this response could be that paralysis gives an animal a better chance of surviving an attack; predators are less likely to eat prey that isn't struggling."


  10. #10
    Expert Yeah's Avatar
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    Some are, some aren't. I've seen it hold true with a bear or two but never seen a lion care either way.
    Playing the preference points game...

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