Your Thoughts on the Oil/Energy Situation?

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  • Justus

    Sharpshooter
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    I was looking through some old bookmarks and found some articles from 2010:

    US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015 | Business | The Guardian

    BBC News - Oil crunch 'just five years away'

    They basically warn that global oil demand will outpace supply by 2015, throwing economies into another recession.
    The other prediction was that oil would reach $100 a barrel by 2015.

    Fast forward 4 yrs to today and we have $100.00 a barrel oil that has just jumped to $107 because of the crazies in Iraq.

    Another recent announcement that concerns me is that the Monterey reserve in California, which accounts for 30% of the total US reserve, is not recoverable with our current technology.

    I'm curious what plans you have made for dealing with any of this or if you think it will be an issue at all.
     

    shibumiseeker

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    Well, you see, there's this free market the self-proclaimed INGO financial gurus who barely have had an econ 101 class keep going on about (yes, I made it all the way up to 300 level economic theory before I got bored with it all as hokum).

    But, my First prediction, the government will continue to let futures speculators ramp up the price of oil to about 2.5 times the pumping and transportation costs (the current markup) because that free market is so important to everyone.

    INGO users and similar folk who think it is their right to to have cheap consumables so they can waste as much as they can afford will continue to complain about how much it costs to fill up their daily commuter truck they have to drive (by themselves) 50 miles a day getting 12mpg just so they can leave it in the parking lot at work (you know, not use a truck as a truck). These are the same folk who got spoiled by being able to burn up a case of surplus ammo for $80/k when the prices were lower than the manufacturing costs (because, you know, that's kinda how surplus works) and now have to pay the commodity cost of ammo. Meanwhile they will continue to make fun of people who buy fuel efficient vehicles which, aside from the benefit of having lower fuel costs, also tend to have lower cost for purchase, and lower costs in other ways (cheaper tires, brakes, etc).

    My Second prediction, getting to the meat of the actual OP question, is that as energy prices go up (the trend line as well as the psychological price of the non-inflation adjusted how many dollars is something), the end user will find more efficient ways of using energy and we will have sources that could not compete with artificially lower prices become more competitive.

    In the last eleven years, energy costs, across the board for all income ranges and types (gasoline, electricity, gas) have almost doubled as a percentage of household income. This is one reason that newer technologies and increased use of renewables has been possible, and the latter there is what is needed, painful as it is, to wean us away from non-renewables.

    I truly feel for the people who actually cannot afford to heat their house and as a result go without food or medications to keep a place above freezing. I feel for the family who drive efficient vehicles, cannot afford to live near mass transit, and are truly squeezed when gas prices go up fifty cents a gallon in one jump. I have no use for people who gripe about these things because it means they can't waste as much. You got the money to waste resources, by all means go ahead, there's that free market for ya, but don't expect sympathy when it costs more to do so.
     
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    BigBoxaJunk

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    "If somebody had been able to warn the world five years before the credit crunch, the credit crunch could have been avoided. The same thing could be said for the oil crunch," says Sir Richard, whose airline and train companies are affected by volatility in the oil price.
    "We suggest there should be a workforce for government and industry to work [together] on addressing this problem.

    That's hilarious. Sir Richard thinks that if only someone could warn humanity, we could all be saved.
     

    findingZzero

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    Two things. OK, 4 things
    1. Storage and transfer. Too hot in the summer. Too cold in the winter. Store and transfer.
    2. Hot fusion. We have this incredible energy source the appropriate distance from earth so as to be useful, but not too harmful. More energy than we could ever use. And it's good for a few billion years. Trees don't pay energy bills. Of course they don't move very fast either. All of our energy sources originated with the sun/stars. We need to figure out how to use this better.
    3. The core of the earth is a churning urn of burning funk.* Figure out how to use it. Volcanic turbines?
    4. Wind and tides are second hand solar energy and therefore limitless.
    If you need this for the apocalypse, maybe not. If you are worried about your grandchildren inheriting a dead planet, there might still be time.

    * James Taylor
     

    Justus

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    Should the lack of rebuttals mean that everyone agrees with the prediction of a supply shortage?
    What's YOUR plan to deal with this if/when it occurs?
     

    GIJEW

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    Should the lack of rebuttals mean that everyone agrees with the prediction of a supply shortage?
    What's YOUR plan to deal with this if/when it occurs?
    Plan to live in the 19th century and build a windmill to run my well pump, so as to supplement my rainbarrels. No, actually I'll be ambitious and connect the windmill to a generator to run the pump AND some lights!
     

    Justus

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    Plan to live in the 19th century and build a windmill to run my well pump, so as to supplement my rainbarrels. No, actually I'll be ambitious and connect the windmill to a generator to run the pump AND some lights!

    We're not quite ready to go off-grid just yet but we are planning on it.
    We're bracing for gas prices to jump substantially and bring on the higher cost-of-living ripple effect.
    We have made a few investments to save costs in the long run and to create small income streams.

    I expect car-pooling and telecommuting to be front and center in the media pretty soon.
     

    The Drifter

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    I remember .35 cents a gal. , that was early 70ts ,now 3.70 a gal. You do the math. Fact, we got plenty of oil ,but the government will not let America drill ,and will not build new refinery's . Government trying to put coal fired plants out of business , also stopping the building of Nuclear plants. What will be left to power much of anything in this great nation ?? Solar can not keep up with demand,wind power is a joke ,power put out verses cost for electric produced , plus it,s killing the birds. Of course gas prices are going to go up ,and up,then it will be rationed,like it was in the late 70ts {if you can get any at all}. Just do your best to get ready for rolling blackouts ,or no power at all. Gas is the least of my worries . Need a good fireplace , need to be able to pump water, need to be able to have enough food and grow your own. Need good sanitation back ups , toilet paper ,tampons for the girls , Coffey to keep you from going nuts.The list goes on and on. Gas, Obama promised us 5.00 a gal. gas , and as much as I do not like the guy ,he will do what ever to keep his word.
     

    Justus

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    I remember .35 cents a gal. , that was early 70ts ,now 3.70 a gal. You do the math. Fact, we got plenty of oil ,but the government will not let America drill ,and will not build new refinery's . Government trying to put coal fired plants out of business , also stopping the building of Nuclear plants. What will be left to power much of anything in this great nation ?? Solar can not keep up with demand,wind power is a joke ,power put out verses cost for electric produced , plus it,s killing the birds. Of course gas prices are going to go up ,and up,then it will be rationed,like it was in the late 70ts {if you can get any at all}. Just do your best to get ready for rolling blackouts ,or no power at all. Gas is the least of my worries . Need a good fireplace , need to be able to pump water, need to be able to have enough food and grow your own. Need good sanitation back ups , toilet paper ,tampons for the girls , Coffey to keep you from going nuts.The list goes on and on. Gas, Obama promised us 5.00 a gal. gas , and as much as I do not like the guy ,he will do what ever to keep his word.

    $3.70 would be nice, it's $3.95 up here!

    I'm not convinced that the US actually has the actual oil reserves that are estimated to be recoverable, especially since the Monterey reserve downgrade.
     

    Justus

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    Y'all ever heard of the Bakken Play?

    Haynesville Shale?

    The domestic energy picture has changed just a bit since 2010.

    Also:
    Crude oil heading to $150: Fund manager

    Is there oil in Haynesville?

    I read that Bakken may be overestimated as well. Some saying that there is only 2 billion barrels of oil that we'll be able to extract.
    I'm not an expert for sure, I'm just cautious that they may be overestimating true reserves.

    The video at the link states that we have had a global economic growth of 3% ?
     

    indykid

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    It is funny that throughout the history of the automobile, they have been crying that we will run out of oil "very soon". When autos first hit the streets, we would be lucky to have any left by 1914. They were wrong then, and good chance "they" are still wrong. We are finding oil in places that we never dreamed of before, and wouldn't it be funny it oil wasn't "fossil fuel" but a natural byproduct of how this earth functions that we just haven't figured out yet?!?!?
     

    ModernGunner

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    Not worried about it. 'New' oil is created all the time, in the same method the 'old' oil has been created for millions of years. It IS a 'renewable resource', just typically takes a longer time period than a human life span.

    New supplies seem to keep 'popping' up in places we hadn't thought about previously (oil sands, fracking, etc.)

    Might the planet run out in some 'future' period? That's possible, I suppose. Might bigger reservoirs yet be discovered (like under ocean)? That's just as possible, and even more likely.

    Might we be hit with a huge asteroid that obliterates life on this planet? Probably more likely than a true 'oil shortage'.

    Nuclear is viable and theoretically limitless, once the 'panic' over it stops and needed controls and adjustments are implemented.

    Solar, wind, volcanic, steam, all have potential to greater or lesser degrees. But not so much with current or foreseeable technology.
     

    avboiler11

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    Is there oil in Haynesville?

    No, but there is LOTS of natural gas...which can be used to replace petroleum for a major chunk of transportation consumption in this country.

    I read that Bakken may be overestimated as well. Some saying that there is only 2 billion barrels of oil that we'll be able to extract.

    USGS estimated last year more than 7B recoverable barrels in Bakken, which was a significant revision upward from the 3-4B estimate they made back in 2008.
     

    nra4ever

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    I would love to drive a hybrid car but the laws of physics don't allow me to for self preservation. I have to drive the biggest car I can afford to fuel to avoid getting killed in an accident by the guy that drives that truck to work and lets it sit in the parking lot.

    Until things change in this country then it's still game on!
     

    Justus

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    No, but there is LOTS of natural gas...which can be used to replace petroleum for a major chunk of transportation consumption in this country.



    USGS estimated last year more than 7B recoverable barrels in Bakken, which was a significant revision upward from the 3-4B estimate they made back in 2008.

    I sincerely hope that the new estimate of 7B is low.
    Bakken makes up a huge percentage of the US reserves, especially now after Monterey.
     

    Expat

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    The liberal Democrats were all crying 30 years ago that gas was too cheap and we need to get it up much higher like the Europeans. That way people would conserve. Well that got it up much higher now and they still don't seem all that happy. Maybe we need to get it up to $10/gallon.
     

    Justus

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    Not worried about it. 'New' oil is created all the time, in the same method the 'old' oil has been created for millions of years. It IS a 'renewable resource', just typically takes a longer time period than a human life span.

    New supplies seem to keep 'popping' up in places we hadn't thought about previously (oil sands, fracking, etc.)

    Might the planet run out in some 'future' period? That's possible, I suppose. Might bigger reservoirs yet be discovered (like under ocean)? That's just as possible, and even more likely.

    Might we be hit with a huge asteroid that obliterates life on this planet? Probably more likely than a true 'oil shortage'.

    I used to have this point of view as well and then it dawned on me that we may very well be looking at a serious problem since we've had a hundred years to poke around and find the low hanging fruit and, like you said, the old,dry wells in Texas aren't exactly going to refill themselves anytime soon. It's harder and more expensive to recover the oil we're finding now and eventually there will just not be any efficient way to extract it. IIRC, fracking uses one barrel of oil to produce four barrels of oil.
     

    findingZzero

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    The liberal Democrats were all crying 30 years ago that gas was too cheap and we need to get it up much higher like the Europeans. That way people would conserve. Well that got it up much higher now and they still don't seem all that happy. Maybe we need to get it up to $10/gallon.

    The surge in oil prices over the last 40 yrs has allowed alternative renewable energy to compete. This investment is allowing those sources to lower prices through economies of scale, investment in research, and wide scale adoption. A role I believe the gumm'nt should assist. Solyndra not withstanding. Someone's gotta light the spark to fuel the fire.
     
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