Is the U.S. economy any better?

[Jerchap2]

While there may be less jobs, the economy has grown larger than it was in 2007 in inflation-adjusted dollars.

Inflation adjusted gross domestic product of the U.S. (Chart & Graph)



Same info. shown as a [faint] white line graph: US Real GDP

The growth, from looking at this chart, seems to have been substantial. However, looking at the numbers, the growth is anemic. It also does not take into account how much of the economy is public vs. private sector growth. An incredible amount of the growth has been in the federal government, which does not really grow the economy, it just take dollars out of where investment makes a difference.

 

[Jerchap2]

Here is another take, pardon the grammar mistake:

 

[mdmayo]

I'm in commission sales, and I made a little over $90K in 2007. In 2012 I made just under $50K, and I'm on target for about $45K this year. This is a direct result of people having less money to spend. So no. The economy isn't doing better. It's doing worse.

I think it's your sparkling personality!

 

[jbombelli]

I think it's your sparkling personality!

Lol. I spend all day being nice to people in the real world, kissing up to them, figuring out their goals and motivations, and showing them how I can help them achieve those goals and realize their dreams.

After spending my day like that I have to vent somewhere.

 

[sun]

The growth, from looking at this chart, seems to have been substantial. However, looking at the numbers, the growth is anemic. It also does not take into account how much of the economy is public vs. private sector growth. An incredible amount of the growth has been in the federal government, which does not really grow the economy, it just take dollars out of where investment makes a difference.

The Dow Jones Industial Average is also much higher now than it was at anytime during 2007.
Its highest was at approximately 14,164 points in 2007 verses being at a high of over 15,500 points in 2013, and closing at 14,810 points currently.
That's a direct measurement of the value of a fixed set of private company stocks as the DOW relates to corporate profits and the perceived state of the economy by investors.

See the charts showing the recent history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average:

Dow Jones Industrial Average (2000 - Present Daily)

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia2000.html

This chart can be pushed back and expanded manually to show previous dates:

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Chart - Yahoo! Finance

 

[Jerchap2]

The Dow Jones Industial Average is also much higher now than it was at anytime during 2007.
Its highest was at approximately 14,164 points in 2007 verses being at a high of over 15,500 points in 2013, and closing at 14,810 points currently.
That's a direct measurement of the value of a fixed set of private company stocks as the DOW relates to corporate profits and the perceived state of the economy by investors.

See the charts showing the recent history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average:

Dow Jones Industrial Average (2000 - Present Daily)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (2000 - Present Daily) - Charting Tools - StockCharts.com

This chart can be pushed back and expanded manually to show previous dates:

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Chart - Yahoo! Finance

What a crock. It is a house of cards. Look at unemployment, food stamp, and disability rates, per an earlier post. The ONLY growth is in those who are dependent on the federal government. And who pays for that? Working people. Collapse is inevitable.

 

[Bunnykid68]

The Dow Jones Industial Average is also much higher now than it was at anytime during 2007.
Its highest was at approximately 14,164 points in 2007 verses being at a high of over 15,500 points in 2013, and closing at 14,810 points currently.
That's a direct measurement of the value of a fixed set of private company stocks as the DOW relates to corporate profits and the perceived state of the economy by investors.

See the charts showing the recent history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average:

Dow Jones Industrial Average (2000 - Present Daily)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (2000 - Present Daily) - Charting Tools - StockCharts.com

This chart can be pushed back and expanded manually to show previous dates:

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Chart - Yahoo! Finance

Also, what is the value of the dollar? If the dollar is worth less than it was 6 years ago then technically the Dow is not up

 

[Kedric]

From what I have experienced and what I see around me, I am going to say it is worse. Much worse, even.

 

[sun]

Also, what is the value of the dollar? If the dollar is worth less than it was 6 years ago then technically the Dow is not up

Technically the DOW is up plenty and inflation hasn't been that high to offset the gains.
And it was already shown that the GNP is higher now than during 2007 in inflation adjusted dollars.
One of my sons graduated from college in biology last year and found a job within several months with a pharmaceutical manufacturer, and works many late hours with plenty of overtime. Sure, a lot of people are out of work and here's a young kid who finds a good paying job right away. He always volunteered at the local library and at the church, and worked summers as a lifeguard during high school and college while most other kids didn't have any chance of finding a job. Some people are just luckier than others I guess by following their own path and by being in the right place at the right time.

 

[J Starkey]

Our economy is definitely worse in my opinion. I work fulltime and as much overtime as I can get (which isn't much maybe 3hrs every two weeks) and I barely can make ends meet. All of my bills keep going up and all of our necessities keep going up in price. Everything's going up in price except my wages. I work in transmission plant that years ago if you got on here it was like hitting the lottery. Sadly I make half as much an hour then I would of if I got hired a few years ago.

 

[jamil]

Technically the DOW is up plenty and inflation hasn't been that high to offset the gains.
And it was already shown that the GNP is higher now than during 2007 in inflation adjusted dollars.
One of my sons graduated from college in biology last year and found a job within several months with a pharmaceutical manufacturer, and works many late hours with plenty of overtime. Sure, a lot of people are out of work and here's a young kid who finds a good paying job right away. He always volunteered at the local library and at the church, and worked summers as a lifeguard during high school and college while most other kids didn't have any chance of finding a job. Some people are just luckier than others I guess by following their own path and by being in the right place at the right time.

The stock market is much like a heroin junky as exemplified by the recent tank when the fed intimated that it would start slowing the pump. Went back to "buy" when the fed announced that it would keep the pump for the foreseeable future.

While there may be less jobs, the economy has grown larger than it was in 2007 in inflation-adjusted dollars.

Inflation adjusted gross domestic product of the U.S. (Chart & Graph)

Of course the absolute GDP is higher. It HAS to be higher or it means flat or negative growth. Although it's had a couple of peaks above 3%, the rate of growth has been pretty pathetic most of Obama's term.

Returning campaign favors to failing green energy companies, as it turns out, doesn't really stimulate the economy all that much. Something you may also find shocking, but trying to get as many people signed up for government dependance doesn't really contribute all that much to a growing economy either.

 

[zippy23]

As a whole, its way worse, no denying it. some areas are doing better, and some are doing worse, thanks to democrat policy most are doing worse. If you have a specialty that is needed, then you are doing great. the general worker is doing very bad, manufacturing, labor, etc. Whats crazy is hospitals are laying people off. this is directly due to the worsening economy, less people to pay insurance means hospitals get less money which means premiums go up, and up thanks to democrat policy as well, and less people can afford it, the spiral continues. the housing market is still terrible. The value of the dollar is terrible, the only thing going for us is the EU is doing way worse so we look good! Millions of jobs are now gone and erased from the books by the gov't to keep unemployment "low", the real unemployment is about 16%. 50% of college kids cant find a job, record numbers of young people still living with their parents, record unemployment for minorities, the gov't printing 85 BILLION a month to keep the fake value of the stock market up, i mean come on, anyone saying the economy is better or the same just has no clue. now if you are a representative who is allowed legal insider trading, then hey i'm sure you are doing just fine.

 

[Rob377]

The growth, from looking at this chart, seems to have been substantial. However, looking at the numbers, the growth is anemic. It also does not take into account how much of the economy is public vs. private sector growth. An incredible amount of the growth has been in the federal government, which does not really grow the economy, it just take dollars out of where investment makes a difference.

Compared to 2007, the "growth" can be completely explained by gov't spending. The formula for GDP of course, C + I + G + (Ex - Im)

where “C” equals spending by consumers,
“I” equals investment by businesses,
“G” equals government spending and
“(Ex - Im)” equals net exports, that is, the value of exports minus imports.


Moreover the method used for controlling for inflation isn't especially useful when housing is cratering and everything else is becoming more expensive.


Then there's the DOW. Sheesh. Talk about riduculous argument.

All that freshly printed money (see below) went to banks and institutional investors. Where do you think they put it? Securities. The growth in the DOW isn't reflective of confidence in the economy or companies with amazing growth and earnings, because if you actually look at those numbers, they aren't great. They actually suck pretty bad. But, all that money the Fed has been printing has to go somewhere, and JP Morgan doesn't have a mattress big enough.

 

[Fordtough25]

I would say it's worse. At my work for example we're quite a bit slower than pre 2007, lots of jobs have moved out of the country because of labor or transportation costs. Overtime is slim and has been for some time, it has spikes of course but not steady. We are having a Christmas party this year for the first time since 2008 though so go figure.

 

[Tsigos]

Views on the economy a product of partisanship, Marquette study finds - m.JSOnline.com

It?s the Partisan Economy, Stupid ? The American Magazine

 

[Expat]

My annual net pay is is still not close to what I made in 2007, not even taking into account inflation. We lost our bonuses for a year or two, then it was permanently restructured and will never approach what it once was. Annual raises were zero for a couple of years but then permanently restructured and I will never be able to get raises like I used to get. They are about half of my normal annual increase used to be. Additionally, with the increases in medical insurance premiums, my share of the cost has gone up. So for me personally, my economy isn't better.

 

[gregkl]

Less and less participation in the economy.

Growing inequity in wealth accumulation (the rich are getting richer at a faster pace than before, with the poor getting poorer at an also accelerating rate).

The biggest employers in the US relying on part-time employees whenever possible

Fewer Americans with the advantages of health insurance, job security, and a pension

Emerging markets slowing down

Banks learning that they are "too big to fail" and are also too big to punish engaging in the same shenanigans that pushed our economy into the crapper to begin with, including commodity manipulation.

So..it all depends. If you are in the 55% or so of folks making $35k per household or less, you are likely to be worse off. If you are in the 35% called the middle class, $36k to $75k per household, you're probably about even, unless the bottom fell out of your house. If you're in the top 10% making $75k or more per year, the economy probably looks just fine. (Percentages are approximate, and may flex 1-3% on the $35k over/under depending on who's stats you use).

This and several other comments made here. My two cents: We saw an uptick in consumer spending mostly due to a pent up demand after the economy crashed in '07. Car sales will finish this year ahead of expectations. However, one can nurse an automobile on for just so long before they decide they have to replace it. I see a drop off in vehicle sales next year.

Manufacturing is very fragile right now. Margins are low, plants and equipment have been rung out as much as possible to avoid capital investment, lean principles have been widely implemented which means fewer jobs will ever come back.

Those re-employed and therefore not counted are in a lot of cases underemployed. If you count the underemployed and the unemployed that have used up the benefits and are off the rolls, we are easily in double digit territory.

And the stock market? It is driven by fear with little basis in reality. Manufacturers constantly over forecast their business growth year after year so they can pump up the value of their stocks. Then when they don't reach their earnings, the value drops.

I am making less now than in 2007 with far less security. My company is on the edge. Declining fill rates, increasing past dues, equipment breakdowns, morale low, people leaving.

For me, it is not better. I am just trying to pay my mortgage and bills hoping that I can land a new job when/if this one peters out.

 

[gstanley102]

Thanks to the current administration it will be many years before the economy is as strong as it was prior to the Imperial Presidents handy work.

Now let's kill the Affordable Health Care Act before it completely destroys our economy.