.22 ammo availability

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  • jamil

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    BIt of a chicken and egg situation here. Scalpers sweep the shelves clear. Rest of us have to buy from scalpers? Somehow we need to break teh cycle. IMO, the best way to do that is for retailers to put limits on purchases, or charge something more than the "old prices" for a while, and the rest of us have to stop buying from the scalpers at their inflated pricing.

    Also, when the rest of us have the opportunity to purchase at a normal price, resit the tempation to buy more than you reasonably need. Don't try to get a years (or more) worth of .22LR in your "stash"! I know that's challenging, as I want to build upp a backlog too. Especially since this "shortage" has been so long...

    You don't have to buy from scalpers. I have purchased in the neighborhood of 3 - 4 thousand rounds since all this started. I'm not a panic buyer and I don't hoard it. I enjoy shooting my .22LR and I shoot what I buy. All my purchases have been made from big box retailers like Walmart or Cabella's, or occasionally online, like Midwest. I've never bought from scalpers. I've never paid scalper prices.

    Retailers ARE limiting purchases. It's not helping very much. Market behavior is mostly market driven. If prices are low and demand is high, people will buy. You're not going to convince them otherwise. People want what they want. If retailers impose artificial limits on supply, which they already do, they are only perpetuating the high demand, not easing it. And, if they keep their prices "reasonable" while imposing those purchase limits, the cycle will never end.

    One behavior that isn't market driven is people's sense of morality. We think that if businesses raise their prices in the middle of a shortage, they are acting immorally. Retailers in this market understand this ethos and don't want to **** off their customers. So they're keeping the prices "reasonable". And, because of the demand at that price level, they have to impose purchase limits.

    If there is anything that consumers can do to stop this never-ending cycle, is to give retailers the okie-dokie to raise their prices to meet demand. If all the traditional retail outlets would raise the price to meet demand, like a natural market tends to do, there would be no incentive for "scalpers" to flip ammo. The demand would naturally decrease. As product is seen on the shelves, albeit at a higher price, the panic buying would ease. As the supply increases and the demand decreases, the prices would drop. Since so many people have panic bought hoards of ammo,
     

    TopDog

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    I agree with both you and TopDog that it won't happen, most likely. I even noted that I have bought what I could, not what I "needed at the moment" during this shortage. But at least I can go to several Appleseeds and not worry about having enough rounds!


    Actually, my own prediction is it may be another 2-5 years before we see the shelves stocked up and prices settled back down. One year is WAAAAY to optomistic in my view.

    Agreed, one year is way too optimistic. I don't see it getting any better until after 2016 and that is only if a Republican gets elected to office of president.
     

    TopDog

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    You don't have to buy from scalpers. I have purchased in the neighborhood of 3 - 4 thousand rounds since all this started. I'm not a panic buyer and I don't hoard it. I enjoy shooting my .22LR and I shoot what I buy. All my purchases have been made from big box retailers like Walmart or Cabella's, or occasionally online, like Midwest. I've never bought from scalpers. I've never paid scalper prices.

    Retailers ARE limiting purchases. It's not helping very much. Market behavior is mostly market driven. If prices are low and demand is high, people will buy. You're not going to convince them otherwise. People want what they want. If retailers impose artificial limits on supply, which they already do, they are only perpetuating the high demand, not easing it. And, if they keep their prices "reasonable" while imposing those purchase limits, the cycle will never end.

    One behavior that isn't market driven is people's sense of morality. We think that if businesses raise their prices in the middle of a shortage, they are acting immorally. Retailers in this market understand this ethos and don't want to **** off their customers. So they're keeping the prices "reasonable". And, because of the demand at that price level, they have to impose purchase limits.

    If there is anything that consumers can do to stop this never-ending cycle, is to give retailers the okie-dokie to raise their prices to meet demand. If all the traditional retail outlets would raise the price to meet demand, like a natural market tends to do, there would be no incentive for "scalpers" to flip ammo. The demand would naturally decrease. As product is seen on the shelves, albeit at a higher price, the panic buying would ease. As the supply increases and the demand decreases, the prices would drop. Since so many people have panic bought hoards of ammo,


    Limits don't work very well becuase employee's at big box stores have found ways around this. Employee's playing the role of scalpers and working with scalpers by giving them the heads up and holding ammo for them. Yes I know it sounds like tin foil had stories, beleive what you want. I for one have pretty much walked away from .22lr which at one time was cheapest and easiest to shoot. So three rifles, two pistols and one revolver set in the safe and hardly get shot. Maybe when I die and family members inhert the weapons they will be able to shoot .22lr with little effort in obtaining said ammo. But I have little faith that I will see the day that .22lr will ever be cheap and plentiful again. It's a shame because .22 is what a lot of fathers start their kids out on shooting. A good way to bond with your kids.
     

    jamil

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    Limits don't work very well becuase employee's at big box stores have found ways around this. Employee's playing the role of scalpers and working with scalpers by giving them the heads up and holding ammo for them. Yes I know it sounds like tin foil had stories, beleive what you want. I for one have pretty much walked away from .22lr which at one time was cheapest and easiest to shoot. So three rifles, two pistols and one revolver set in the safe and hardly get shot. Maybe when I die and family members inhert the weapons they will be able to shoot .22lr with little effort in obtaining said ammo. But I have little faith that I will see the day that .22lr will ever be cheap and plentiful again. It's a shame because .22 is what a lot of fathers start their kids out on shooting. A good way to bond with your kids.

    I highly doubt that the current situation is perpetuated by employees tipping people off. But even if it were, if retailers charged the market value for ammo, scalpers couldn't turn a profit and would no longer buy it up. I know we like to have a boogie man to blame, and since scalpers abound, why not blame the whole thing on them. But the fact is, conditions exist now that create that kind of market for scalpers. And enterprising people will surely take advantage of that. Limiting purchase quantities can't stop it, and hasn't stopped it.

    I'd bet all the 22LR I have that if all retailers started charging what people are willing to pay right now, you'd see 22LR regularly on the shelves within weeks. And by the end of the year, baring further panic events, prices would fall back naturally within a year. Problem solved. But no, we have to think businesses who raise their prices to meet demand when there's a market panic, are evil.
     

    TopDog

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    I highly doubt that the current situation is perpetuated by employees tipping people off. But even if it were, if retailers charged the market value for ammo, scalpers couldn't turn a profit and would no longer buy it up. I know we like to have a boogie man to blame, and since scalpers abound, why not blame the whole thing on them. But the fact is, conditions exist now that create that kind of market for scalpers. And enterprising people will surely take advantage of that. Limiting purchase quantities can't stop it, and hasn't stopped it.

    I'd bet all the 22LR I have that if all retailers started charging what people are willing to pay right now, you'd see 22LR regularly on the shelves within weeks. And by the end of the year, baring further panic events, prices would fall back naturally within a year. Problem solved. But no, we have to think businesses who raise their prices to meet demand when there's a market panic, are evil.

    Of course it is not a simple situation As has been hashed out here on INGO Ad nauseam and a myriad of other forums. It is a combination of more than just one factor. It's a few factors working against .22lr being available. That much is painfully obvious. There is no bogie man, and no one factor causing and perpetuating the situation. I didn't mean to insinuate that was the only thing working against the consumer, but I do believe it is one of the many factors involved. The solution does remain simple. As has been mentioned up thread, if you could as if by magic get people to stop paying the inflated prices of scalpers and also hording themselves it would go back to normal. I just don't see this being fixed for several more years. You can find threads back on 2013 where people were optimistic that this would blow over by 2014, then last year people were hoping it would be done by 2015, it goes on...
     

    jamil

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    There is only one solution to this. Let the market work this out.

    Retailers need to raise their price to match the market value of 22LR. If enough people are willing to pay $75 for a brick of bulk 22LR, and if retailers start charging that much, you will start seeing 22LR on the shelf. And as fewer people are willing to pay that, the price will drop. It is as simple as that. No need for unicorn dust to work its magic to get people to stop buying from flippers.

    Everyone has a ceiling. The market has a very well tested way to figure that out.
     

    jcwit

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    There is only one solution to this. Let the market work this out.

    Retailers need to raise their price to match the market value of 22LR. If enough people are willing to pay $75 for a brick of bulk 22LR, and if retailers start charging that much, you will start seeing 22LR on the shelf. And as fewer people are willing to pay that, the price will drop. It is as simple as that. No need for unicorn dust to work its magic to get people to stop buying from flippers.

    Everyone has a ceiling. The market has a very well tested way to figure that out.

    How many years have you worked in retail, or owned your own retail business?
     

    Hawkeye

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    There is only one solution to this. Let the market work this out.

    Retailers need to raise their price to match the market value of 22LR. If enough people are willing to pay $75 for a brick of bulk 22LR, and if retailers start charging that much, you will start seeing 22LR on the shelf. And as fewer people are willing to pay that, the price will drop. It is as simple as that. No need for unicorn dust to work its magic to get people to stop buying from flippers.

    Everyone has a ceiling. The market has a very well tested way to figure that out.

    I agree, we should let the market work things out. That's sort of what is happening today, but we've put another step in the distribution channel ( the scalpers for lack of a better term) and we've made the distribution channel more inefficient.

    Having worked in "big box retailing" eons ago, I think I have some reasonable conjecture on what is going on with the Big Boxes. I think the retail pricing is being set in a corporate "ivory tower" by people who dont really understand the firearms/ammunition market very well.
     

    jamil

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    I agree, we should let the market work things out. That's sort of what is happening today, but we've put another step in the distribution channel ( the scalpers for lack of a better term) and we've made the distribution channel more inefficient.

    Having worked in "big box retailing" eons ago, I think I have some reasonable conjecture on what is going on with the Big Boxes. I think the retail pricing is being set in a corporate "ivory tower" by people who dont really understand the firearms/ammunition market very well.

    Raise the price and that extra step in the distribution channel goes away.

    I do think, especially in the case of Walmart, that retail prices are being set by people who don't really understand the firearms/ammunition market. But many retailers have made statements along the way that they will not jack up the price in a show of good ethos to consumers. And, really, that's commendable. But it enables "scalpers" to buy up supplies at a price well below what people are willing to pay, before other consumers can get to it. So they become the available source.
     

    jamil

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    jamil, How many years have you worked in retail, or owned your own retail business?
    That number has nothing to do with the correctness of my assertions. If you think I'm trying telling retailers how to run their business you really don't understand my point.
     

    davidw221

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    I went to Gander Mountain Saturday for the 22LR. sale, the same ole senior citizens that camp out at Wal-Mart were there in front of the line waiting to hoard, and scalp, I don't get it, these guys were all in their mid to upper 70'S and around 300LBS. looks like they use their profits to go to the Golden Coral. To me I'll wait them out, with their lifestyle they won't be camped out at Wal-Mart too much longer.
     

    bwframe

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    I went to Gander Mountain Saturday for the 22LR. sale, the same ole senior citizens that camp out at Wal-Mart were there in front of the line waiting to hoard, and scalp, I don't get it, these guys were all in their mid to upper 70'S and around 300LBS. looks like they use their profits to go to the Golden Coral. To me I'll wait them out, with their lifestyle they won't be camped out at Wal-Mart too much longer.

    Snap a phone pic next time and post it up. That'd be something to see. ;) Might get interesting down the road too... :dunno:
     

    bwframe

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    Thanks again for the tip on this. I got in early with my order and thought I had scored a rare for me .22LR ammo buy.

    Just a little heads up on this. I ordered this ammo when it was showing "available" and added another 50ish bucks in other merchandise to justify the shipping costs. A few days later I received the other merchandise, but no ammo. Turns out I had been backordered on the ammo with no notification. After a couple minimal info emails, Cabelas has cancelled the outstanding backorder. I explained politely that I was not happy with their customer service. :xmad:

    Again, thank you Ballstater98. I'm less than happy with Cabelas though.
     

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