A Familiar Pattern: As Sales of Firearms Go Up … Crime Goes Down

[Kutnupe14]

while i am all for gun ownership, i feel like this can be filed under "post hoc ergo propter hoc"

meaning one could just as easily say "unemployment went up in 2011 while gun ownership went up, therefore unemployed people must be the ones buying guns"

or any other dozens of stats....you have to be careful with "statistics"

For instance, it is a fact that crime goes up with the sale of ice cream. I have sinve boycotted Blue Bunny

 

[femurphy77]

Huh! I never made the connection, thanks Mr. Obvious!!!

 

[jamesg]

One reasons I believe why the "increased gun ownership = lower crime rate" conclusion doesn't work, is because the number of people carrying concealed far outweighs the open carry crowd.

I know here in the Floyd County area, they issue tons of LTCH's. I didn't get statistics but when I went to pay for mine, the guy at the window said it is unbelievable how many people come through every day getting a LTCH. He said the number of people in our immediate area that at least have a LTCH is staggering. While I think this is great, I think it in no way indicates this is why crime may have gone down, because walking around day to day you never ever see an open carry.

So either a crap ton of people here have a LTCH and don't even carry, or they carry but only concealed, which would have essentially zero impact on crime.

 

[critter592]

For instance, it is a fact that crime goes up with the sale of ice cream. I have sinve boycotted Blue Bunny

Excuse me. There is only one Printcraft. You are not the INGO Clown. :-)

 

[Roadie]

One reasons I believe why the "increased gun ownership = lower crime rate" conclusion doesn't work, is because the number of people carrying concealed far outweighs the open carry crowd.

I know here in the Floyd County area, they issue tons of LTCH's. I didn't get statistics but when I went to pay for mine, the guy at the window said it is unbelievable how many people come through every day getting a LTCH. He said the number of people in our immediate area that at least have a LTCH is staggering. While I think this is great, I think it in no way indicates this is why crime may have gone down, because walking around day to day you never ever see an open carry.

So either a crap ton of people here have a LTCH and don't even carry, or they carry but only concealed, which would have essentially zero impact on crime.

Sorry to disagree, but your logic is flawed. CC prevents crimes as well. Statistics show that many self defense situations are resolved by the good guy merely pulling a gun and never firing a shot. Also, as we see with the Kroger situation, CC works quite well when having to actually use it as well.

 

[Bill of Rights]

Excuse me. There is only one Printcraft. You are not the INGO Clown. :-)

He's not?

Oops. (and yes, that looks to be a five-year-old girl.)

(No offense meant to printcraft or to Kutnupe.)

Blessings,
Bill

 

[jamesg]

Sorry to disagree, but your logic is flawed. CC prevents crimes as well. Statistics show that many self defense situations are resolved by the good guy merely pulling a gun and never firing a shot. Also, as we see with the Kroger situation, CC works quite well when having to actually use it as well.

How many times in your life have you ever been in a situation where you would actually pull a gun? For most people the answer is zero. Sure you got some nutjobs that think a weird look warrants a throw down battle.....testosterone enraged idiots aside.....99.9% of the time most of us would never even pull the gun, even if we had it on us. Rightfully so. Hence gun ownership has nothing to do with decreased crime rate because the gun is never brought into the equation. I would say lots of things have contributed to gun ownership and lots of factors are involved in decreased crime rates. To connect the two is quite honestly only beneficial to those who want to believe it.

 

[critter592]

Bill the poster is a bit disturbing. But your new profile pic is Bueno!

 

[Roadie]

How many times in your life have you ever been in a situation where you would actually pull a gun? For most people the answer is zero. Sure you got some nutjobs that think a weird look warrants a throw down battle.....testosterone enraged idiots aside.....99.9% of the time most of us would never even pull the gun, even if we had it on us. Rightfully so. Hence gun ownership has nothing to do with decreased crime rate because the gun is never brought into the equation. I would say lots of things have contributed to gun ownership and lots of factors are involved in decreased crime rates. To connect the two is quite honestly only beneficial to those who want to believe it.

We arent talking about MY life, or even YOUR life, we are talking about facts, and verifiable statistics. You are debating the issue using your opinion, not facts and/or statistics..

So, here are just a couple for you to chew on..

Based on survey data from a 2000 study published in the Journal of Quantitative Criminology, U.S. civilians use guns to defend themselves and others from crime at least 989,883 times per year.

Other estimates put it closer to 2,000,000, and these are just the REPORTED incidents.

Can you cite ANY references for your side of the debate?

 

[jamesg]

We arent talking about MY life, or even YOUR life, we are talking about facts, and verifiable statistics. You are debating the issue using your opinion, not facts and/or statistics..

So, here are just a couple for you to chew on..



Other estimates put it closer to 2,000,000, and these are just the REPORTED incidents.

Can you cite ANY references for your side of the debate?

if you take a sample from the community such as this one full of gun owners, you should get a pretty good idea

which is why i asked here, on a gun owners forum

the number of times we, gun owning people have been in a situation where we would actually pull a gun is slim to none, no matter how you want to skew it

i own one and plan to never ever use it in any situation involving a crime, as most people

you don't need some boring statistics to tell you the truth do you?

statistically the number of idiots talking on cell phones has increasingly gone up every year, so has gun ownership, so all idiots on cell phones must be gun owners....you see.....the statistics by themselves are pretty worthless

 

[Roadie]

if you take a sample from the community such as this one full of gun owners, you should get a pretty good idea

which is why i asked here, on a gun owners forum

the number of times we, gun owning people have been in a situation where we would actually pull a gun is slim to none, no matter how you want to skew it

i own one and plan to never ever use it in any situation involving a crime, as most people

you don't need some boring statistics to tell you the truth do you?

statistically the number of idiots talking on cell phones has increasingly gone up every year, so has gun ownership, so all idiots on cell phones must be gun owners....you see.....the statistics by themselves are pretty worthless

Uhm, since we are talking about self defense with a firearm here, wouldnt that make those in the stats I posted...gun owners??

To you "truth" is subjective and is based on what YOU believe..

To me truth is both subjective, and relative, as I tend to to take into account "boring" things like facts, evidence and statistics before I make a determination as to what "truth" is for me..

 

[jamesg]

Uhm, since we are talking about self defense with a firearm here, wouldnt that make those in the stats I posted...gun owners??

To you "truth" is subjective and is based on what YOU believe..

To me truth is both subjective, and relative, as I tend to to take into account "boring" things like facts, evidence and statistics before I make a determination as to what "truth" is for me..

you really aren't saying anything though...your truth, my truth...blah blah blah.....people will believe what they want no matter how statistically sound you try to make it. There are actually people who see that statistic and believe that gun ownership directly and by itself, drove down crime rates. There are people who believe many things.

so again i say, most gun owners will never even be in a situation where they will actually pull a gun out, that's a fact, which means gun ownership means mostly nothing at all when it comes to crime rate, because for the crime rate to be affected by gun ownership, people would actually have to use the gun, which means pulling it out, which brings us back to square one, most people (gun owner or not) will never even find themselves in a situation where they would pull out the gun.....you know this is true, i know this is true, everyone knows this is true.

To connect gun ownership to crime rate is completely ridiculous and absurd and is something I honestly expect out of some members here, anything that fuels the cause.

Now, come back with a stat showing increased gun ownership and how it compares to the number of crimes directly deterred by the lawful use of a gun by a lawful gun owner. Then it's different. Or how about a statistic that shows how many deaths in the same period were by firearm, that also shows gun ownership went up in that same period.

Oil consumption went up in the United States in 2011, so did gun ownership. Therefore owning guns leads to increased oil consumption.

See? One could do this all day long with any stat you want. It's all about picking the best way to present the data to meet your personal needs. Gun hippies need to jump on every little shred of anything to try to justify their existence. There's nothing wrong with owning a gun. I love firearms. But I am also not ignorant enough to believe something as blatantly biased as that "statistic".

 

[Roadie]

you really aren't saying anything though...

so again i say, most gun owners will never even be in a situation where they will actually pull a gun out, that's a fact, which means gun ownership means mostly nothing at all when it comes to crime rate, because for the crime rate to be affected by gun ownership, people would actually have to use the gun, which means pulling it out, which brings us back to square one, most people (gun owner or not) will never even find themselves in a situation where they would pull out the gun.....you know this is true, i know this is true, everyone knows this is true.

To connect gun ownership to crime rate is completely ridiculous and absurd and is something I honestly expect out of some members here, anything that fuels the cause.

Now, come back with a stat showing increased gun ownership and how it compares to the number of crimes directly deterred by the lawful use of a gun by a lawful gun owner. Then it's different. Or how about a statistic that shows how many deaths in the same period were by firearm, that also shows gun ownership went up in that same period.

Oil consumption went up in the United States in 2011, so did gun ownership. Therefore owning guns leads to increased oil consumption.

See? One could do this all day long with any stat you want. It's all about picking the best way to present the data to meet your personal needs. Gun hippies need to jump on every little shred of anything to try to justify their existence. There's nothing wrong with owning a gun. I love firearms. But I am also not ignorant enough to believe something as blatantly biased as that "statistic".

My aren't we just a little arrogant?

To connect gun ownership to crime rate is completely ridiculous and absurd and is something I honestly expect out of some members here, anything that fuels the cause.

Gun hippies need to jump on every little shred of anything to try to justify their existence.

Really? Instead of any proof to make your point, you just keep restating your point over and over again, in the assumption that since you believe it to be true, it must be true. No facts, just rhetoric, and now insults.

At least there is a logical correlation between guns, and self defense WITH a gun, as opposed to your odd example of oil and guns.. The statistic I posted is one of many, but you respond as if it is the only one. Again, no logic.

My apologies, I thought we were attempting to have a civil logical debate...

Carry on.

 

[jamesg]

it was very civil, there was only a differing of opinions, there were no insults

i don't quote statistics unless i compiled them myself typically, i find them to always be presented with prejudice and bias, as the one you presented was. "See see guys, more guns being owned means less crime!!" Seriously? I don't take anything that broad to heart. There's far too much behind that "stat" to take it at face value and to present it as such is borderline irresponsible, in my opinion, of course.

 

[Roadie]

it was very civil, there was only a differing of opinions, there were no insults

i don't quote statistics unless i compiled them myself typically, i find them to always be presented with prejudice and bias, as the one you presented was. "See see guys, more guns being owned means less crime!!" Seriously? I don't take anything that broad to heart. There's far too much behind that "stat" to take it at face value and to present it as such is borderline irresponsible, in my opinion, of course.

You do not see the insult in the statements I quoted? Honestly? lol

BTW, I do not mean I saw insult to me personally, but you did get insulting to gun owners in general, even specifying members of this board. To say otherwise is disingenuous at best.

BTW, my point was never that "more guns equal less crime". My point was, and still is, that you are saying that those types of gun stats are unequivocally UNtrue, which you have no more proof of than I do that they are true. However, at least the counter to your argument has facts, statistics, anecdotal evidence, etc, to back up it up, while you, up to now, have shown nothing to back up YOUR position, other than repeat it ad nauseum, in different ways.

Get it yet?

You discount all statistics, somehow believing that they are ALL wrong, yet you are right.. Forgive me if I see more merit in the CDC, FBI, DoJ, independent studies, John Lott, etc etc etc, than I do an anonymous name on a gun forum..

 

[jamesg]

You do not see the insult in the statements I quoted? Honestly? lol

BTW, I do not mean I saw insult to me personally, but you did get insulting to gun owners in general, even specifying members of this board. To say otherwise is disingenuous at best.

BTW, my point was never that "more guns equal less crime". My point was, and still is, that you are saying that those types of gun stats are unequivocally UNtrue, which you have no more proof of than I do that they are true. However, at least the counter to your argument has facts, statistics, anecdotal evidence, etc, to back up it up, while you, up to now, have shown nothing to back up YOUR position, other than repeat it ad nauseum, in different ways.

Get it yet?

You discount all statistics, somehow believing that they are ALL wrong, yet you are right.. Forgive me if I see more merit in the CDC, FBI, DoJ, independent studies, John Lott, etc etc etc, than I do an anonymous name on a gun forum..

you win i dont care anymore, you believe what you will as will i, no i never meant any insults, i am a gun owner, i was referring to a certain group of people in general, not specific people, but i know some of those types are members here, you can't gather a crowd of gun owners and not get a few nutjobs, that's just life......enjoy your's, i will

 

[2A_Tom]

I'd be curious to see how the stats looked as the FBI compiles them, but with the crimes occurring in gun-restrictive areas not counted.

My bet would be that both the property and violent crime rates would drop even more. Granted, part of this would be that the above gun-restrictive areas are all larger cities, but I think the difference would be undeniable.



Blessings,
Bill

There is a map at this url.
http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/csp/cms/sites/Telegraph/dt.common.streams.StreamServer.cls?STREAMOID=o3mtE7wzpAgyT8p1Dj$$oIWbbme1f7Jmdzzb0plrc0898qClVApQQGH c1W_nVMkK4Aw$6wU9GSUcqtd9hs3TFeZCn0vq69IZViKeqDZhq NLziaXiKG0K_ms4C2keQo54&CONTENTTYPE=application/pdf&CONTENTDISPOSITION=GunsMurder0107.pdf
Sorry, posted wrong link.

 

[Roadie]

There is a map at this url.
file:///media/B00A-841D/pdf&CONTENTDISPOSITION=GunsMurder0107.pdf

FYI: You can't link to a file on your computer

 

[2A_Tom]

BTW that map is from a very liberal source.

 

[Bill of Rights]

BTW that map is from a very liberal source.

No kidding!

I don't see where it allows for the data to be separated out, though.
For example, if I want to know how many people were killed using a gun in Illinois, I can locate that data. What I don't know about is if anyone compiles data to arrive at that number without Chicago being a part of it, or NY state without NYC. I think that would be very revealing to look at those numbers.

Blessings,
Bill