Did world war 3 just start?

[BogWalker]

There's plenty of collateral damage that is favorable to the Saudis. I don't necessarily believe that the U.S. oil industry is a target, the Saudis are heavily invested in the U.S. The big targets are Iran and ISIS. Keeping mind, initially Saudi Arabia was the driving force behind maintaining production, now they're all on board.

The problem is they were heavily invested in the US. Our own surge in oil production kicked them partially out of our market. By collapsing our domestic oil industry we'll have to rely on them once again.

 

[T.Lex]

I don't really disagree with the last few points, but want to offer a bit of a different idea. I think the goal may be to remind people (everywhere) how much they control the "real" cheap oil supply. They (OPEC, but mostly the house of Saud) can make it move however they want. If it ends up sending Russia into recession and the US into default on debt, then that's the brinksmanship game.

 

[mrjarrell]

People in Russia are running out and buying durable goods while they still can, (and while the ruble still has some value). They've seen this before and are acting accordingly. If there's a run on the banks things are going to get even uglier. Putin has overplayed his hand, it appears.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-ruble-way-down-071159336.html

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Putin having a press conference.

Putin says Russia has sufficient currency reserves, the ruble will recover - @AP Breaking news on Vladimir Putin's 2014 press conference - breakingnews.com

 

[smokingman]

Putin having a press conference.

Putin says Russia has sufficient currency reserves, the ruble will recover - @AP Breaking news on Vladimir Putin's 2014 press conference - breakingnews.com

I do think they have sufficient reserves with over 400 billion left currently,they also have the swap line of of 150 billion Yuan with China and do not understand why they have not used any of that during the last few months.I understand Russia's central bank is even more independent than our Federal Reserve and privately owned but it is almost as if the central bank wants the Ruble to devalue.

Also of note China has been a net seller of US Treasuries in 2014,and a net buyer of Russian short term debt.Russia has no notes out further than 5 years as they are a net creditor not a debt based country,and as stated earlier still have a net 400+ billion in reserves.

On the face of it, it makes absolutely no sense that the Ruble is falling.Even with the fall in currency they still have a budget surplus,ample reserves,and are still a net exporter.They have record low unemployment(5.2%)and GDP growth averaging just over 5% a year since 2000(it may fall to 1-2% growth this year).In what world does any of that lead to a collapse in the value of a currency?
I understand the trade penalties from the EU and USA,but they have simply shifted exports to Turkey(over 80% increase)and China.

I must be missing something,if not it looks like the Ruble is simply under attack by the west.

 

[OneShotFOGE]

I do think they have sufficient reserves with over 400 billion left currently,they also have the swap line of of 150 billion Yuan with China and do not understand why they have not used any of that during the last few months.I understand Russia's central bank is even more independent than our Federal Reserve and privately owned but it is almost as if the central bank wants the Ruble to devalue.

Also of note China has been a net seller of US Treasuries in 2014,and a net buyer of Russian short term debt.Russia has no notes out further than 5 years as they are a net creditor not a debt based country,and as stated earlier still have a net 400+ billion in reserves.

On the face of it, it makes absolutely no sense that the Ruble is falling.Even with the fall in currency they still have a budget surplus,ample reserves,and are still a net exporter.They have record low unemployment(5.2%)and GDP growth averaging just over 5% a year since 2000(it may fall to 1-2% growth this year).In what world does any of that lead to a collapse in the value of a currency?
I understand the trade penalties from the EU and USA,but they have simply shifted exports to Turkey(over 80% increase)and China.

I must be missing something,if not it looks like the Ruble is simply under attack by the west.

They're just so dependent on oil sales, that when they are selling such a high percentage of their goods at a loss, that your currency will take a hit. Kinda like a household losing money every month. Banks will get nervous when more money goes out than in. And its fear based. The population has seen this before and fears their rubles will be worthless. Bottom line, there are more sellers of Rubles than buyers so the value is dropping.

 

[T.Lex]

BBC News - The Russians fighting a 'holy war' in Ukraine

A view of Russians fighting Ukraine. Frankly, the motivation is very disconcerting, particularly if it is widespread:

Despite Kremlin denials, evidence from intelligence sources, and Russian human rights groups, suggests thousands of regular Russian troops have also been fighting there, alongside a larger number of local rebels. But men like Pavel say they aren't there under orders, or for money, but only for an idea, the idea of restoring a Russian empire. It would be Orthodox, like the empire of the tsars, including Ukraine and Belarus. "Why do I say Donetsk is Jerusalem? Because what's happening here is a holy war of the Russian people for its own future, for its own ideals, for its children and its great country that 25 years ago was divided into pieces," Pavel says.
...

"The Ukrainian authorities aren't responsible for starting this war," says a young volunteer from the outskirts of Moscow who wants to be known only by his military nickname Chernomor (Black Sea). "It's Britain, Europe and the West." He's a trained lawyer who served in the Interior Ministry forces, partly in Chechnya, and now he's left his new wife and baby son to fight, he says, for "freedom". That means freedom, in the first instance, for the Russian nation. Pavel is more apocalyptic. "Our efforts are saving the Russian state," he says. "Because if the war for Donetsk is lost, it will immediately cross the border and begin in Russia. Rostov, Moscow, Vladivostok will be in flames."

Maybe the BBC just found the whackjobs.

 

[smokingman]

BBC News - The Russians fighting a 'holy war' in Ukraine

A view of Russians fighting Ukraine. Frankly, the motivation is very disconcerting, particularly if it is widespread:


Maybe the BBC just found the whackjobs.

Kind of like the BBC reporting Americans and British fighting for ISIS.Sure some have,but that does not mean the US government or British government support ISIS.

Since you mentioned the human rights group I will mention what else it had to say per the UN report.
UN accuses Ukraine forces, pro-Russia rebels of 'torture'

""The efforts of the government to safeguard the territorial integrity of Ukraine and restore law and order in the conflict zone have been accompanied by arbitrary detentions, torture, and enforced disappearances of people suspected of 'separatism and terrorism."
UN officials also pointed to "limited progress" by Kiev in investigating more than 300 cases of indiscriminate shelling witnessed since the start of the year(By government forces).
Not that the rebels are blameless by any means.
The United Nations said the guerrillas, in turn, were guilty of creating a criminal state in parts of the industrial regions of Lugansk and Donetsk.

Then you have this gem in the report,but according to some here there are no Neo Nazi's in Ukraine.
Rights groups believe that some of the gravest crimes are being committed by Ukrainian ultra-nationalist volunteers who joined the fighting after taking an active part in last winter's popular uprising in Kiev.

Of course now the USA is providing military hardware to Kiev(going against a UN resolution that pasted just 2 months ago where we agreed not to).
The meeting in Rome came after US lawmakers passed a bill -- dubbed the Ukraine Freedom Support Act -- calling for additional sanctions against Russia and the delivery of up to $350 million (280 million euros) worth of US military hardware to Kiev.
Kerry, Lavrov meet as tensions soar over Ukraine

 

[smokingman]

I feel so sorry for Ukraine at this point,for many reasons.The absolute worst reason though I just learned.

"
Baku - APA. Famous American billionaire George Soros may be appointed head of the National Bank of Ukraine.


APA reports that Ukraine’s Channel 112 disseminated this information quoting sources in Verkhovna Rada and people around Petro Poroshenko."
APA - George Soros may be appointed head of National Bank of Ukraine

You can not even make this crap up.

 

[T.Lex]

Whoa. I thought he was Greek.

Thats... goofy.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Putin has invited Kim Jong Un to Moscow.

Sounds almost like an "axis"

 

[T.Lex]

Sometimes the memes just write themselves.

 

[smokingman]

Putin has invited Kim Jong Un to Moscow.

Sounds almost like an "axis"

Which axis are we talking about lol?
The "Evil" axis Germany,Italy,and Japan?
The "Beyond evil axis" Cuba,Syria,Lebanon,and Libya?
The "Terror axis" Iran,Syria,Afghanistan,and Iraq?
The "Axis of environmental terror" Australia,United States,and Canada?
or the ever classic...
Axis of evil Iran,Iraq,and North Korea?

Funny how much the "axis" changes over time based on politics.

I do wonder why Russia would invite him though.He was educated at an English language school in Switzerland and has had a few official visits with France and China.I see no benefit for anyone even talking to the man. Why did Hilary Clinton travel to North Korea to talk to him?
* Edit my bad.Hilary talked with Cho Myong Nok,the number two man in North Korea.

 

[smokingman]

I do think they have sufficient reserves with over 400 billion left currently,they also have the swap line of of 150 billion Yuan with China and do not understand why they have not used any of that during the last few months.I understand Russia's central bank is even more independent than our Federal Reserve and privately owned but it is almost as if the central bank wants the Ruble to devalue.

Also of note China has been a net seller of US Treasuries in 2014,and a net buyer of Russian short term debt.Russia has no notes out further than 5 years as they are a net creditor not a debt based country,and as stated earlier still have a net 400+ billion in reserves.

On the face of it, it makes absolutely no sense that the Ruble is falling.Even with the fall in currency they still have a budget surplus,ample reserves,and are still a net exporter.They have record low unemployment(5.2%)and GDP growth averaging just over 5% a year since 2000(it may fall to 1-2% growth this year).In what world does any of that lead to a collapse in the value of a currency?
I understand the trade penalties from the EU and USA,but they have simply shifted exports to Turkey(over 80% increase)and China.

I must be missing something,if not it looks like the Ruble is simply under attack by the west.

China Offers Russia Help With Currency Swap Suggestion - Bloomberg
I did not understand why they had not used it before now.

 

[T.Lex]

They may need it. The Central Bank is bailing out at least one bank:
Russia starts bailing out banks as economy faces 'full-blown crisis' - Telegraph

Anna Stupnytska, an economist at Fidelity Solutions, said that “the risk of a sovereign default is low, it’s the corporate sector where the main vulnerabilities lie, and banking in particular”.
“Due to sanctions, companies cannot refinance their debt as access to international markets has been essentially cut off”, she added.

So, in an unintended consequence of sanctions, this may be pushing Russian companies - and the gov't - away from the dollar, generally. If there is enough financial intertwining of the ruble and yuan, it may represent a new "common" currency valuation. Eventually.

 

[smokingman]

They may need it. The Central Bank is bailing out at least one bank:
Russia starts bailing out banks as economy faces 'full-blown crisis' - Telegraph



So, in an unintended consequence of sanctions, this may be pushing Russian companies - and the gov't - away from the dollar, generally. If there is enough financial intertwining of the ruble and yuan, it may represent a new "common" currency valuation. Eventually.

Not just with Russia.China did a 350 billion Yuan deal with the EU China signs second-biggest swap line with ECB | Reuters
Australia RBA: Media Release-Bilateral Local Currency Swap Agreement with the People's Bank of China
Canada,India Chinese, Canadian central banks agree to 200 billion yuan currency swap - The Economic Times
Along with 50+ other nations that have swap agreements and who can trade with China without Dollars.

Sadly most actions taken by our government are encouraging this across the world.

 

[mrjarrell]

Until, and unless, we get rid of the Federal Reserve and return our currency to a strong one, then this will be par for the course. We should get used to it. The Euro and the British Pound are both stronger currencies than ours and they shouldn't be. The government has been degrading our currency for many decades now and it is unlikely to change anytime soon. The powers that be are in bed with the people running, and ruining, our currency.

 

[T.Lex]

BBC News - Ukraine votes to drop non-aligned status

Ukraine's parliament has voted to drop the country's non-aligned status and work towards Nato membership.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called the move "counterproductive" and said it would boost tensions.
...
Speaking before the vote, Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin said Ukraine was determined to pivot towards Europe and the West.

 

[smokingman]

BBC News - Ukraine votes to drop non-aligned status

Merkel Said to Reject Ukraine NATO Bid  - Bloomberg

Not going to happen.

 

[T.Lex]

Whether it happens officially or not isn't really the point.