Don't bet your life on averages

[the1kidd03]

Just a reminder that handgun calibers are actually pretty poor performers.

Wasn't there some old quote about using your handgun to fight your way to your rifle?

Better than a club or peeing on yourself, but not quite as definitive as, say, 5.56 or 00 Buckshot.

My philosophy as well.

I don't remember who conducted it but a recent study of over 1800 shootings which tracked what weapons were used, calibers, etc. showed that each handgun consistently required more than 2 shots to stop the threat. Only rifles and shotguns consistently got it done in less than that and considerably more "one shot stops" as well.

I'll have to link it later tonight. I have it saved on my PC at home.

 

[edeekeos]

I was involved in a self defense situation years ago. Bad guy was hit 8 times, 6 center mass and he was still trying to kill me. It took a headshot to stop the attack. CNS is the best, but very difficult to obtain, especially when you've been wounded.

Please tell me you did a write up on this. I would love to hear about your thoughts, feelings, and actions during this situation. This is what we all carry for, and ultimately all hope never happens. This is big stuff, I can understand why you would rather not discuss it, but I would really like to hear your story..

 

[phylodog]

I decided many years ago that I was going to be the last person to run out of ammo in a gunfight. I've caught some flack on occassion for my choices but I'm a firm believer that more is better and I'd much rather have it and not need it than the alternative.

 

[lovemachine]

Just a reminder that handgun calibers are actually pretty poor performers.

Wasn't there some old quote about using your handgun to fight your way to your rifle?

Better than a club or peeing on yourself, but not quite as definitive as, say, 5.56 or 00 Buckshot.

My philosophy as well.

I don't remember who conducted it but a recent study of over 1800 shootings which tracked what weapons were used, calibers, etc. showed that each handgun consistently required more than 2 shots to stop the threat. Only rifles and shotguns consistently got it done in less than that and considerably more "one shot stops" as well.

I'll have to link it later tonight. I have it saved on my PC at home.

That argument is fine and dandy for when you're at home.

Me, I don't carry a rifle and/or a shotgun when I'm out and about. And I don't carry one in my Jeep either.

When I'm out, my pistol is all that I have. So I make sure I have a reliable pistol that holds lots of ammo, along with one or two spare mags. And I plan on using my pistol and spare mags to fight my way, and my family's way, to safety.

If I am EVER in a gun fight, I'm going to make damn sure I have enough ammo to survive. And, a spare mag, or 2, is NOT difficult to carry.

 

[the1kidd03]

That argument is fine and dandy for when you're at home.

Me, I don't carry a rifle and/or a shotgun when I'm out and about. And I don't carry one in my Jeep either.

When I'm out, my pistol is all that I have. So I make sure I have a reliable pistol that holds lots of ammo, along with one or two spare mags. And I plan on using my pistol and spare mags to fight my way, and my family's way, to safety.

If I am EVER in a gun fight, I'm going to make damn sure I have enough ammo to survive. And, a spare mag, or 2, is NOT difficult to carry.

Indeed. You can't predict how many it will take. Too much is better than not enough.

My personal prep is enough ammo on me to fight my way to the vehicle where I have more firepower that theoretically is sufficient to get me elsewhere (home).

 

[BehindBlueI's]

As a civilian I've thought of carrying a shotgun in the back of my vehicle. What do you all think, good idea or not, and if a good idea what load would you suggest in such a scenario?

In what self defense scenario do you envision yourself having time to retrieve a firearm from the trunk of your vehicle?

When SHTF it hits it real quick. Even getting a shotgun out of a rack inside the passenger compartment is too slow when you're already engaged.

To the original point:

Reasonable minds can differ, but I'm not changing what I carry based on one event. Can you shoot it accurately under stress is more important that capacity in my mind, especially since way more gun fights are settled by time than by capacity. Who can get that first solid hit? Every time this story comes up, I point out that the other guy sucked at shooting. The officer was very unlucky to come across that statistical outlier who can suck up that many rounds, but was very lucky to come across someone who was just throwing lead and not connecting. I will continue to carry whatever I can get 3 "a" box hits from 7 yards with the fastest. I firmly believe, based on my own experience and investigations, that this matters much more often than capacity.

I will also point out that a lot more victims die with a loaded gun in their holster or a malfunctioning gun in their hand than they do with an empty gun.

I also don't buy the 9mm = .45 thanks to modern ballistics. The .45 has enjoyed those exact same advances. Obviously a .45 isn't a death ray, but that's a misunderstanding of the argument. It does do more damage than a 9mm, it deals with bone better, and it deals with intermediate barriers better. While a perfect hit may have negligible difference, a hit through a car door may have a much more pronounced difference. Heavy and slow works better than light and fast in those instances. The 9mm has the advantage of faster follow up shots. There is no free lunch, folks, not in physics.

By all means, prepare for the statistical outliers, BUT NOT AT THE EXPENSE OF PREPARING FOR THE MORE LIKELY ENGAGEMENTS. If you shoot a higher capacity double stack equally well as a lower capacity firearm, then by all means carry that one. You lose nothing to do so. As for me, I've yet to find a double stack I shoot as well as a thinner gripped gun. If I ever do find one I shoot as well as my GP100, I'll be on it like a fat kid on a cupcake, though. Eagerly awaiting my chance to play with the new Sig P227, maybe it'll be the one...

 

[Mgderf]

The law of averages says that "...one above the vest..." almost always stops the threat.

Shot placement is MUCH more important than capacity, however extra capacity will allow more chances to land that "perfect shot".

In my opinion, if I'm being shot at, I'm NOT going for center mass. That's just me.

 

[MPH]

Please tell me you did a write up on this. I would love to hear about your thoughts, feelings, and actions during this situation. This is what we all carry for, and ultimately all hope never happens. This is big stuff, I can understand why you would rather not discuss it, but I would really like to hear your story..

Outside of the homicide detectives and a grand jury, you're the first person to ask me that.

Let's see...scared less, when I got hit, and a tactical reload during the event, moving from my shot out window to a telephone pole, and then to his car. All the while, I was hoping he'd stop firing. He had a 6-shot .357 and actually dumped the empty shells and reloaded during the gunfight. I fired a total of 19 times. 6 sets of three as per training, verbal orders to drop the gun, and finally the headshot. 9 went in him, a vacant building took 3 shots and never did find the other round impacts.

I was lucky. The round he fired was a reloaded .357 lead round, if it was jacketed I probably wouldn't be here. It went under my vest stirrup, skidded along my chest and sunk into my collarbone. The exact same shot, 7 years later killed IPD Officer Jake Laird, however, that was a 7.62X39 fired from an SKS.

Anyway, it was a damn good Christmas present, being able to walk away..the morning of December 26th, after having gone into work on Christmas night.

 

[eldirector]

I'm certainly not advocating "fighting back to your rifle", or carrying a rifle. Totally impractical.

Just observing that there is a trade off in effectiveness for portability. Even the "best" handguns and ammo aren't a sure thing. So, we pick the best we can, carry extra, and train.

@MPH - thanks for sharing. Can't hardly imagine being there, and glad you made it. Merry Christmas, indeed!

 

[MikeDVB]

When I carry my 1911 I am carrying 8+1+8 for a total of 17 and when I carry my Sig p226 9mm I carry 15+1 for a total of 16. The up-side to the Sig is that I don't need to carry a second magazine to have nearly the same amount of rounds available. The downside is that I could see myself in a defense situation pulling the trigger until the gun stopped working which is a training issue.

With the Sig I'd be completely out while with the 1911 I'd at least have 8 more rounds to go - that said if I needed 10 rounds to stop the threat I'd prefer not to have to do a mag change unless required but my 1911 is single-stack and is much more comfortable for IWB wear which is the primary reason I acquired it.

At the end of the day 15 is the minimum I carry - and I can only hope that I never need to use a single round.

 

[88GT]

On the issue of number of rounds to carry and what's "good enough:"

When has it ever been a good idea to base your level of preparedness on minimum standards?

The reality is that we all base our preparedness on minimum standards. Minimum just means we refuse to go below, but it's sufficient for our purposes.

It may be that when the need arises to rely on our preparation, we find that our minimum fell short of the situational requirements necessary to achieve a particular outcome. But it doesn't mean that the standard was inherently insufficient. It could just as easily have been more than enough.

Even the replies on here should be enough to indicate that not only is there no right or wrong standard, but it's relative. Doesn't matter how many rounds you have as long as you have more than the guy you're shooting at. It should be obvious to anybody that that could be true whether you carried 7+1 in a 1911 or 52 with a 17+1 and 2 back-up 17s.

You sort of make that acknowledgement at the end, but I disagree that planning for the worst is all that is needed. If that were the case, we'd all hump cases of ammo around with us. And probably something belt-fed.

The point is that it's no more logical to base your standard on a single datum point (one anecdotal story of a gunfight with a high round count) than it is to base your standard on an average. Both are insufficient by themselves. A smart person would factor in the other risks, priorities, and likelihoods and make his choice according to his needs and risk aversion.

Otherwise, I agree about the use of averages for decision-making. THey should be guides, not standards. And they mean exactly squat when you become another data point in the sample set.

 

[bwframe]

Great article MAC! Thanks.
Wonder if there are many stories where non LEO's needed more than their normal carry gun and reloads? I mean, of course, beyond the Jframe with no reload crowd.

 

[ru44mag]

Great thread. A lot of good responses. It's good to hear all this, think about it, sleep on it, and tomorrow we will all carry what makes us feel reasonably safe. I do agree with AlwaysVigilant. I kinda figure if I empty 3 mags into someone, I'm out of ammo, and he is still coming at me, I should be able to fight back with other means. Besides, after taking that many hits, maybe I could kick his butt.

 

[dmarsh8]

GOt this from uscca today. Eye penning

 

[MisterChester]

Totally agree. More ammo is better. With a 9mm you can always try to help increase stopping power by using different types of ammo. In a defensive situation when SHTF I would be relying on Hydro-Shok 9mm bullets.

 

[Spike_351]

I believe this is a dupe.

 

[dusterboy49]

Keep shooting until the threat is neutralized.
You can't go wrong with that.

 

[the1kidd03]

Keep shooting until the threat is neutralized.
You can't go wrong with that.

Unless you run out of ammo.....

 

[swilk]

Unless you run out of ammo.....

And considering a person has absolutely no way of knowing when enough is enough we have little choice but to carry what we want, how we want, when we want.

There is no such thing as being prepared for any situation that might come along.

We get in a car and we take a chance. Get on an airplane and we take a chance. Walk down a flight of stairs and we take a chance. Carry a 6+1 9MM and we take a chance.

 

[the1kidd03]

And considering a person has absolutely no way of knowing when enough is enough we have little choice but to carry what we want, how we want, when we want.

There is no such thing as being prepared for any situation that might come along.

We get in a car and we take a chance. Get on an airplane and we take a chance. Walk down a flight of stairs and we take a chance. Carry a 6+1 9MM and we take a chance.

Everything in life is a risk vs. reward, calculated decision.

If one's not a good shot, I'd suggest carrying more ammo. If one's not taken any training, I'd suggest more ammo. If one doesn't know how they react when their life is threatened, I'd suggest more ammo. etc. etc.

Of course, these are just some examples and relative to each person to decide based on their comfort, skill, confidence, etc. Regardless, we cannot predict the number of people we will be forced to oppose, much less when or if such a situation will happen.