How far could you travel in this? - LONG Post

[Libertarian01]

[FONT=&quot]To All,
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]I am going to ask several questions about a hypothetical SHTF day but first I am going to set up the scenario so that variables are limited.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]First I will set up the how of SHTF and your general situation. Next I will try to give a basic description of the events unfolding around you. Finally I will leave it up to you to describe your answers to the questions AND your reasoning behind your answers.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Prelude: A good friend asks you to drive a good distance and deliver something for him/her on Saturday. They would do it but they have two (2) commitments and cannot make it. As you are friends you agree. You are alone. There are no other friends or family with you. It is somewhere between April & November. There will be no significant weather to impede your movement beyond possible normal rain.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]You deliver the item and head for home. You are on a major interstate highway either in Indiana or near Indiana. It is Saturday and you left the delivery site at 11AM hoping to be home midday to do some stuff for yourself.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]At exactly 12Noon the radio reports a horrible situation. Three mid yield nuclear devices explode simultaniously. One in New York City, one in Washington DC, and the last in Austin, Texas. At 12:15PM the radio reports that Al Quida has made a press release claiming responsibility and that “there is more to follow.”[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Cell phones quickly become overwhelmed and communication is nonexistant, although text messages may get through in time. By 12:30PM there are limited reports of people leaving large cities, looting, and panic. In New York the Governor has declared a State of Emergency. No one has heard from the President as he was in DC and the VP was giving a long planned speech in Austin (Go figure). Cars are driving faster and more erratic and accidents are becoming common.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]At 12:35PM while still on the main road your vehicle is hit by another driver who has three teenagers in the car. Your vehicle and theirs are damaged to the point that neither can be driven. Fortunately no one is seriously injured. You think the other driver was trying to text a message while driving. You are able to walk away from your vehicle at exactly 1PM.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]You find yourself EXACTLY 100 miles from home at the point of impact. If you have alternative communications and have a ditch area then you are exactly 100 miles from that. Either way you are 100 miles as the crow flies. You have everything you would normally carry in your vehicle and nothing more. For purposes of this discussion if you have alternative transportation in a PU truck it was damaged in the accident and unusable.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]During your travel home looting and violence increases. The main roads become jammed with people who have panicked or run out of gas. Many are afraid that their city "will be next." Massive runs on supermarkets have overwhelmed the system. Gas stations either have long lines or are closed. Large cities become much more dangerous as the system struggles to maintain control. Smaller towns are less chaotic but some begin to form militias of their own, maybe with local LE command or without.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]#1) How long would it take you to walk 100 miles? Normally this could be done in 2 – 5 days with a clear road. However, people are beginning to panic and loot. The main road isn’t completely safe. How far do you think you travel, presuming that you are being cautious and not just tooling down the road? I would think that in a SHTF situation you would not just stroll down the road but you would be cautious, or am I wrong?[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]#2) What factors would determine whether you got off of the main road or stayed on it?[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]#3) When would you sleep, night or day?[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]#4) What type of area would you look for to sleep at? Would you walk along the road until you found a motel or would you camp?[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]#5) Would you approach any homes and ask for food, water, or a place to sleep? If you did do you carry anything specifically to trade?[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]#6) Would you try to work with others who are also trying to get home or would you avoid them? As most are NOT as prepared as you this means you are carrying stuff that they want or need.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]#7) If you live in a major city in Indiana (Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, Evansville, South Bend, or Gary) do you have a special route in mind to make it home in the urban landscape?[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]I was wondering how far I could make it in a SHTF situation and I think my goal would be as far as I could on the first day or two and later 10 miles per day, traveling cautiously. However, once I made it to the city limits I think I would be much harder pressed to make it to my home safely.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]I think I would also go cross country immediately and hit a county road going in the direction I wanted to go. I would try to go in a direction that would take me away from any major highways and avoid crossing them again.[/FONT]

Your thoughts?

[FONT=&quot]Regards,[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Doug[/FONT]

 

[redneckmedic]

Great Post, a Go Bag, or GHB should have what is needed. You should always have at least 1 days clothes (season accurate) and either on or packed a good pair of boots, a long gun (I keep a 12g single shot under my bench, always) and plenty of ammo. I have a tightly rolled blanket in my truck also. This would all go with me on a hike. I would find the closest landmark that I know depending where I am, train tracks, river, ext. All roads, not just major are off limits to me. You have to have a plan ahead of time. We do, we know where to meet, what to bring, and how long to wait depending on the situation.

Don't over think it. Grab your important stuff and go, get away from people and get to your family or retreat or what ever you have as plan B.

 

[Eddie]

[FONT=&quot][/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]#1) How long would it take you to walk 100 miles? Normally this could be done in 2 – 5 days with a clear road. However, people are beginning to panic and loot. The main road isn’t completely safe. How far do you think you travel, presuming that you are being cautious and not just tooling down the road? I would think that in a SHTF situation you would not just stroll down the road but you would be cautious, or am I wrong?[/FONT]

I would guess five or six days depending. I would likely go offroad, using a map and compass (I carry them in my walk home bag). If I was north or south of home, I would probably travel the river bottoms of the Wabash since it flows within a mile of my home. If I was east or west I would stay well off the interstate but I would paralel it, occasionally sighting it for reference.

[FONT=&quot]#2) What factors would determine whether you got off of the main road or stayed on it?[/FONT]

I would get off the main road to avoid other people. My goal is to get home and I don't need anyone else to do that.

[FONT=&quot]#3) When would you sleep, night or day?[/FONT]

I would sleep at night and move slowly at a walk all day.

[FONT=&quot]#4) What type of area would you look for to sleep at? Would you walk along the road until you found a motel or would you camp?[/FONT]

In the situation you described, I would camp. I have plenty of gear in the car to sleep outside. I wouldn't be too picky: holing up in the brush would be fine so long as there was no standing water/not too soupy.

[FONT=&quot]#5) Would you approach any homes and ask for food, water, or a place to sleep? If you did do you carry anything specifically to trade?[/FONT]

I have an emergency stash of cash but I would hold it. I have three MRE's and some water, along with purification tablets. I would be hungry by the end, but I think I could make it.


[FONT=&quot]#6) Would you try to work with others who are also trying to get home or would you avoid them? As most are NOT as prepared as you this means you are carrying stuff that they want or need.[/FONT]

I would avoid them. All I need to do to get home is walk 100 miles without getting into trouble, better to go it alone.

[FONT=&quot]#7) If you live in a major city in Indiana (Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, Evansville, South Bend, or Gary) do you have a special route in mind to make it home in the urban landscape?[/FONT]
I live in a small town (about 1,500) people. I'm sure that most of them would be glad to see me.

 

[evansvillethompsongunner]

This is better as a reminder of what to do rather than as a blanket questionnaire.

For instance, I firmly feel that most of these questions are rhetoric, as in no-brainers, but I'll leave it to everyone else to talk about how they would react. I appreciate the prompt.

 

[dburkhead]

[FONT=&quot]#1) How long would it take you to walk 100 miles? Normally this could be done in 2 – 5 days with a clear road. However, people are beginning to panic and loot. The main road isn’t completely safe. How far do you think you travel, presuming that you are being cautious and not just tooling down the road? I would think that in a SHTF situation you would not just stroll down the road but you would be cautious, or am I wrong?[/FONT]

I would figure 2-3 times the "clear road" time. I can and have done 30 miles a day on a clear road so call it up to 10 days in the described scenario. That's an awfully long time to be away from home in such a situation.

[FONT=&quot]#2) What factors would determine whether you got off of the main road or stayed on it?[/FONT]

So long as the roads are relatively busy and traveled (as in busy with people traveling), I'd stay on the roads. When/if traffic starts to thin down or the crowds start looking less like travelers and more like a mob, then, well, you've already provided the factors: panic and looting. Off road as much as possible.

The real "gotcha" however is that I might want to avoid urban areas but that could mean some pretty significant detours. In that case I may have to take to the roads, in which case I'd try to look as harmless and worthless as possible. (Homeless bum with nothing worth stealing.) Sometimes you've got to take a chance.

[FONT=&quot]#3) When would you sleep, night or day?[/FONT]

Sleep at night.

[FONT=&quot]#4) What type of area would you look for to sleep at? Would you walk along the road until you found a motel or would you camp?[/FONT]

Somebody staying at a motel would have money and/or other things worth stealing (looting). The motel itself might be a target for looters. (Difference between a scavenger and a looter: a scavenger crosses through the already broken window of the abandoned Kroger and grabs enough food for himself and his family for a few days. The looter breaks the window on the local Best Buy and loads up the van with TV's, Stereos, and computers. I prefer to avoid doing either.)

[FONT=&quot]#5) Would you approach any homes and ask for food, water, or a place to sleep? If you did do you carry anything specifically to trade?[/FONT]

Depends on how desperate I got. I carry a couple of days worth of "emergency rations" in the car, plus water, plus a water filter. This distance, however, is an awfully long one to go just on the supplies I'm carrying. Still, I'd have to be awfully desperate to risk dealing with others with "panic and looting" going on.

[FONT=&quot]#6) Would you try to work with others who are also trying to get home or would you avoid them? As most are NOT as prepared as you this means you are carrying stuff that they want or need.[/FONT]

Again, avoiding others seems to me to be the way to go. There is, however, one possibility that could lead me to rethink that. I've got food, water, firearms, and ammunition. What I'm lacking is transportation. If I could get together with someone who has working wheels and work out a deal that would be really, really tempting (10 days getting home vs. 1-2). A lot would depend on my "read" of the situation both in how I feel about the person, how I feel about the rest of the situation, and just how worried I am about the situation at home.

Anything one does is going to be a risk, but, well "He who will not risk, cannot win." (John Paul Jones)

[FONT=&quot]#7) If you live in a major city in Indiana (Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, Evansville, South Bend, or Gary) do you have a special route in mind to make it home in the urban landscape?[/FONT]

It really depends on which direction I'm coming from. From the south, I'd link up with a friend of mine in Greenwood and we'd arrange the expedition to check on and/or gather up my family. From the West or North I can get quite close to home without having to take to urban streets. From the East, that's a little more difficult and I may have to go homeless beggar.

One further point. I am strongly opposed to turning into one of the "bandits" and taking even "essentials" from looted stores, let alone robbing individuals. However, should someone attempt to rob me and I manage to be the one coming out on top, well, all bets are off. Try to rob me and anything they have is fair game.

 

[ar15_dude]

Nice scenario you created Doug. I'll give it a shot.

[FONT=&quot]To All,
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]#1) How long would it take you to walk 100 miles?
Walking: 4 days at best, maybe longer. Catching a ride: 2 hours at best.
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]#2) What factors would determine whether you got off of the main road or stayed on it?[/FONT]
I wouldn't stay on an interstate, but would take smaller state or county roads, headed in the general direction of home.

[FONT=&quot]#3) When would you sleep, night or day?[/FONT]
At night.

[FONT=&quot]#4) What type of area would you look for to sleep at? Would you walk along the road until you found a motel or would you camp?[/FONT] I'd rough / cold camp.

[FONT=&quot]#5) Would you approach any homes and ask for food, water, or a place to sleep? If you did do you carry anything specifically to trade?[/FONT] This is probably the most element of success. I wouldn't knock on doors, but would converse with people I see if the situation supports conversation. I would offer to help where I can, and ask for help if I need it. With luck, I might catch a ride part of the way home. My life experience tells me that there are usually people in similar situations to me, and there is synergy in working together. I wouldn't have any specific trading items, but can offer to help. For example, maybe if I help them gather their family, they'll give me a lift. Although cautious until they know you, country people are universally generous and kind hearted.

[FONT=&quot]#6) Would you try to work with others who are also trying to get home or would you avoid them? As most are NOT as prepared as you this means you are carrying stuff that they want or need.[/FONT] See above. I would NOT recommend carrying a long arm, as it makes you both a threat to others, and a target for someone wanting it. What would YOU do if a stranger came to your door packing a rifle? That is why CCW is the way to go, and supports my desire to appear as just another sheeple.

[FONT=&quot]#7) If you live in a major city in Indiana (Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, Evansville, South Bend, or Gary) do you have a special route in mind to make it home in the urban landscape?[/FONT]
Thankfully I don't live near any metropolis.

 

[dburkhead]

May I have permission to post this scenario elsewhere?

 

[Libertarian01]

To All,

I've seen some great ideas and interesting points of view. I'll share some more on this later.

Mr. Burkhead,

Feel free to post where you may want.

I should disclose to most of you that I've "lived" through the SHTF many times. At least my characters did. I used to play (and still do) many roleplaying games. Quite a few involved post-holocaust scenarios.

If you are interested there was Morrow Project, Rogue 417, Aftermath, and several alternates in the Fringeworthy system (Rogue 417 was one of these).

I've seen destruction by meteor impact, plague (always a favorite because you get to play with the symptoms), nuclear attack (not so popular any more), alien invasion, and a plague of farm plants.

I think it is important to know what you have and what you can do, but also important to have an idea as to how to execute a simple goal like getting home on the big day. 100 miles isn't that far today, less than two (2) hours if you hurry. Take away the mechanized transportation and hours may become weeks. This begs the question, "Do you have enough? Really?"

Regards,

Doug

 

[Bruenor]

This is better as a reminder of what to do rather than as a blanket questionnaire.

For instance, I firmly feel that most of these questions are rhetoric, as in no-brainers, but I'll leave it to everyone else to talk about how they would react. I appreciate the prompt.

When I read this, I instantly thought of many things that I don't have in my car that I should have. Here are some things that I'm planning on adding.

1) Stainless steel water bottle and purification tablets

2) High calorie dense meals

3) Extra socks; if I'm walking 100 miles, I'll need more than the pair I'm wearing and a spare.

4) A topo map of Indiana and a compass, in case I need to go off road.

5) For any trip longer than my daily commute, I'll toss my .22 pistol and some ammo into my pack. It would be very useful to hunt small game, but could still be easily concealed in a pack.

6) Once again, for any long trip, I'll toss my shotgun into the trunk. It may draw attention if I'm carrying it, but I can more easily avoid attention and crowds than I can whittle myself a shotgun if I need one.

7) Communication; I need to start studying and get my HAM license. Then I can get a small, hand-held unit that I can have in my car at all times. If I can't get cell reception, I should be able to get through on the shortwave.

8) Finally, if I'm going to be away from home for up to a week in a disaster situation, I need to come up with a plan with my wife. If she's home alone, she needs to know exactly what to do in this situation; how to not draw attention to herself, where her primary location should be, where to go (and how to let me know) if she needs to leave her location, and what to take with her.

 

[Libertarian01]

To All,

A lot of cool ideas. I agree with most of them and don't really disagree with any of the thoughts so far.

Eddie, I really like the idea of following rivers if possible. I'll try to remember that one. As I live in Ft. Wayne I've got some choices...

Redneckmedic, I like the idea of train tracks. I had not thought of that but now with these two (2) posts right in a row rivers and train tracks make sense. Do you know if there is a specific map of train tracks?

Evinsvillethompsongunner, You are correct in this as a reminder, but don't overlook the benefits of sharing from each persons unique perspective. I think each person can "tweak" a solution and in thinking about solving a problem everyone's insights and thinking pattern can help all of us think outside of our own little boxes.

Dburkhead, I agree with avoiding urban areas, mostly. Would you avoid if you came upon one on the first or second day or would you be more risky?

Ar15Dude, You say four (4) days at best. That seems to be a fast pace. I am not disagreeing w/ your assessment but wondering, are you in reasonably good shape? When I was in the Corps I know I could do that. Now? A bit heavier and not as good shape. I might still be able to do 25 miles per day, but boy would I be hurting!

Everyone is sleeping during the night and traveling at day. I am kindof surprised that no one wanted to travel at night except Eddie who is going mostly off road.

Everyone also chooses mostly to avoid other people which I agree with also. But this is conditioned on a willingness to cooperate with others. This makes sense.

For me coming into Fort Wayne there is no easy way to avoid the urban issues. If I come in from the south or west I would try to meet w/ friends. Also from the north. I live on the NE side but not so far N that I would avoid issues. Doug would have issues.

I'm somewhat iffy on avoiding a longarm. I've thought about putting a short rifle / carbine in the BOB. I don't know if one lone person armed would pose a significant threat. I could always hide it IF I were to approach someone else. It would be observed by any approaching me.

Again, a LOT of interesting viewpoints on the same scenario. Please keep them coming as I am learning from each. Yes, I am greedy!

Regards,

Doug

PS - No matter what from all of this I now know I need a compass! Any good ideas on where to get one?

 

[Eddie]

Good Map

As far as the two posts about maps. What I like are those "state atlas" type books that have a detailed county map on each page. They show county roads, rivers and streams and rail lines. I keep one in the vehicle and it really comes in handy when a road is closed due to an accident or something. The bigger state maps aren't helpful when you come to the intersection of County Road such and such and Rangeline Road and you need to know where you are.

 

[dburkhead]

Dburkhead, I agree with avoiding urban areas, mostly. Would you avoid if you came upon one on the first or second day or would you be more risky?

It would strongly depend on my "read" of the situation. If the "panic and looting" is in isolated pockets, then I might take a chance with keeping my eye out for possible trouble (too noisy or "quiet . . . too quiet").

I would want to avoid the authorities, BTW, at least until I got very close to home. My first responsibility is to my family and contacting someone who is likely to direct me (willingly or not) to an "evac center" that is very likely not where my family is is unacceptable. Close to home, especially if the area has been evacuated, I can at least try to find out where my family is likely to have gone.

 

[CarmelHP]

Where are you all getting your water? A 3-10 day hike would need about a gallon a day just to ward off dehydration.

 

[Eddie]

Water

Have some fresh on hand, but then you will need a purification system like tablets or a filter. That is a good thing about Indiana, it is easy to find water here.

 

[eldirector]

My $0.02

[FONT=&quot]#1) How long would it take you to walk 100 miles? Normally this could be done in 2 – 5 days with a clear road. However, people are beginning to panic and loot. The main road isn’t completely safe. How far do you think you travel, presuming that you are being cautious and not just tooling down the road? I would think that in a SHTF situation you would not just stroll down the road but you would be cautious, or am I wrong?[/FONT]
Probably take me at least double (4-10 days) depending on the direction. N, W, S are all farmland and small towns (for the most part), so I can take a pretty direct route. Indy is to my east, and I would have to go WAY around.

[FONT=&quot]#2) What factors would determine whether you got off of the main road or stayed on it?[/FONT]
Off the main road immediately. Like, as soon as I heard the news. Would keep pretty near roads, and would use rural ones to keep my speed up. Cross-country when in farm land would be just as fast. In some areas I could pick up a RR line that heads pretty close to home.

[FONT=&quot]#3) When would you sleep, night or day?[/FONT] Night. Walk from first light to just enough left to find a campsite.

[FONT=&quot]#4) What type of area would you look for to sleep at? Would you walk along the road until you found a motel or would you camp?[/FONT] Woods, old barns, near water (creeks, ponds, etc... - gotta stay hydrated). Someplace easy to hide and/or defend.

[FONT=&quot]#5) Would you approach any homes and ask for food, water, or a place to sleep? If you did do you carry anything specifically to trade?[/FONT] If I got desperate enough, sure. To make us both feel safer, I'd likely ask to sleep in the barn/shed/porch. Take water if I can, and food would be nice.

[FONT=&quot]#6) Would you try to work with others who are also trying to get home or would you avoid them? As most are NOT as prepared as you this means you are carrying stuff that they want or need.[/FONT] Probably not. The group would likely move slower.

[FONT=&quot]#7) If you live in a major city in Indiana (Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, Evansville, South Bend, or Gary) do you have a special route in mind to make it home in the urban landscape?[/FONT]I live just west of Indy, so that would be my biggest worry. No way I am walking through a major city under these conditions. It would take me forever to skirt it, but I would. The only way I would go through is if I was confident enough to follow the river or RR tracks into town, and then pick up the RR tracks that head towards home. I could make GREAT time walking/jogging the railbed, but would be very exposed. Maybe at night?

 

[Beau]

Idea for rifle. A Kel-Tec sub2k is a folding rifle. It would be easy carry this in such a way as to not draw attention from a distance. Would also fit in your pack if you wanted to be totally discrete. Plus they can use thirty round Glock magazines. Which take up less space than AK/AR mags.

 

[mrw]

Great post. I like things like this that make you think.

A few things that have popped into my head:

While I don't like to rely on electronic devices, my blackberry has gps and two different mapping apps. If I turn off wifi and the transmitter I can easily get over three days of use. Works as a compass too.

Since I have no concealed storage in my suv, I've considered a cheap ak with folding stock. It will fit nicely in a padded Tennis racket case. Easy to carry with as they all have straps.

I really need to get my BOB together and a portable ham radio.

 

[Libertarian01]

Eddie,

What is the name of one of these maps and where can I get them? I have some maps of NE Indiana but none for the whole state, and certainly not in a book form.

Thanks!

Doug

As far as the two posts about maps. What I like are those "state atlas" type books that have a detailed county map on each page. They show county roads, rivers and streams and rail lines. I keep one in the vehicle and it really comes in handy when a road is closed due to an accident or something. The bigger state maps aren't helpful when you come to the intersection of County Road such and such and Rangeline Road and you need to know where you are.

 

[Eddie]

The book I have

The book I have is called "Indiana County Maps". It is published by Thomas Publications LTD., Puetz Place, Lyndon Station, WI 53944. It has a number (608) 666-3331.

 

[Bruenor]

I found these maps at Cabela's. I've never seen one in person, so I can't comment as to how good they are, but here they are.

DeLorme State Topographic Atlas