I thought more guns=less crime?

[churchmouse]

FIFY

Thank you.

 

[Classic]

Statistical Analysis is a complicated study. Many factors play in to violence perpetrated between human beings. Anyone who believes the PRESENCE of a firearm causes violence or the absence of a firearm prevents violence has s*** for brains. People being armed will deter certain kinds of crimes (armed robbery, home invasion, etc.) but may have little effect on some crimes of passion (jealousy, rage, etc.) Personally I just want to be able to defend myself or the Republic when and if it is necessary.

Even if you found gun ownership up and crime down in 49 states, the Leftist gun grabbers would be barking about the one state where it wasn't true. Reminds me of the old proverb about teaching a pig to sing. Liberals (Democrats) do not want to be confused by the facts.

 

[beararms1776]

If every citizen in Arizona had a fully auto carry the crime rate would still be high.
Think with me....where are they located....what country is to the immediate south of them....what does that country bring to us......a steady flow of violence associated with drugs and dirt bag vagrants flowing across the border. Arizona is the focal point of that area for drugs and dirt bags.
Hell yes they are up to their ears in crime.

I knew there was good reason for AZ being a [STRIKE]must[/STRIKE] shall issue State.

 

[dansgotguns]

Very great points! Keep em coming.

 

[46321]

My hunch is that the AZ stats on gun crimes are temporarily high due to the failed ATF Fast and Furious program that gave criminals in the country to the south thousands of illegal guns. It's no surprise the drug trade leads to guns being used illegally in a gateway state like AZ.

Add to the mix that each state defines and reports crimes differently (UCR be damned), it's easy for gun control advocates to cherry pick stats -- and snaphots in time -- that make guns look like the problem.

 

[cbm76]

I read or heard a "statistic" (on Sean Hannity?) shortly after all of the gun control craze hit Congress that was something along the lines of gun related crime being down 39% in the last 10 years even though more and more people are purchasing.

To be fair - I can't find that stat and the details of it are fuzzy in my mind, but can anyone find or confirm this?

 

[rugertoter]

As your likely already know, there are many factors that affect violent behaviors. Guns actually have almost nothing to do with it. Violent people will continue to be violent. What guns do is permit lawful people to defend themselves and deter violent offenders.

Isn't this what it is all about? Even with gun control, criminals will always get their mitts on firearms, so I don't want to be standing there with my knife if some clown breaks into my home with a gun.

 

[Bennettjh]

More guns in more law abiding gun owners hands=less crime.

 

[eldirector]

You can't compare two different cities with two different populations in that way. Comparing Chicago to NYC, or to Los Angeles, for example, is apples and oranges. Look at Detroit and Indianapolis. Michigan issues licenses/permits, and so does Indiana, but the two cities are pretty far apart when it comes to violent crime.

What you have to look at is what was the violent crime rate in a particular area before people started carrying firearms, and what happened to the violent crime rate after. The conclusion drawn from this approach is that violent crime rates tend to go down when a state allows its citizens to carry firearms. But even that is nothing more than correlation. There is so much more that factors into this that it boggles the mind.

But in the end, it's not right to try to tell someone, regardless of where he lives, that he cannot avail himself of the tools he needs to defend his own life.

Very simplified, but this is spot on.

Taking a single data point (One state, one year's statistics, and nothing else), and you cannot show a trend. As other's have said, you can't really even compare states, since the demographics tend to be so very different. You CAN look at a state over time, and see if crime rates correlate with any changes in legislation. In my limited research, there is almost ALWAYS a negative correlation between crime (violent crime down) and the ability of citizens to defend themselves (guns up).

Now you have me interested in Arizona... Time to dig up same data, I suppose.

 

[ziggy]

See the work of Prof. John Lott. He has studied this in great detail, county by county, all across the USA. I'm sure there may be exceptions such as some parts of AZ where drug smugglers run crime rates up, however, it is generally true that more guns equals less crime. High rates of lawful gun ownership make many types of opportunistic crime too risky for the BG population so they find other ways to amuse themselves.

 

[eldirector]

Ok, so a quick shot at some actual data:

Numbers are VIOLENT CRIMES per 100K POPULATION. I threw in some interesting data points to help our argument. I am SURE there is much more to the drop (and preceding drastic rise) in crime than just "guns", but I'll leave that as an exercise for another day.

Sources:
Arizona Crime Rates 1960 - 2011
Arizona Crime Rate Dramatically Drops | CTR Guns
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/20111006s-trends-arizona-business-centennial.html
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/20111103biz-centennial-1980-arizona-business.html
History of Phoenix Gangs | eHow


Oops - almost forgot to mention.

In 1993, Sheriff Joe Arpaio was elected as Maricopa County Sheriff. Notice the immediate drop in crime state-wide. (The Phoenix metro area does account for roughly a 1/3 of ALL violent crime in the state).
http://phoenix.gov/webcms/groups/internet/@inter/@dept/@police/documents/web_content/097388.pdf

 

[RLC]

If every citizen in Arizona had a fully auto carry the crime rate would still be high.
Think with me....where are they located....what country is to the immediate south of them....what does that country bring to us......a steady flow of violence associated with drugs and dirt bag vagrants flowing across the border. Arizona is the focal point of that area for drugs and dirt bags.
Hell yes they are up to their ears in crime.

churchmouse beat me to it. I lived in the southwest for 30 plus years and worked alot in AZ. You have a huge problem with illegals and drug trafficking. It's only going to get worse unless we change immigration and drug laws.

 

[Robjps]

I recently lived in Phx AZ for 6 years honestly found it to be safer then Indy. Most crime is hidden away from the average citizen and doesn't affect them. I lived on the west side of Phx from Youngtown, El Mirage, Tolleson, 83rd and Indian School, and 75th and something.

 

[dansgotguns]

Hey el director can you change the word ganges to gangs so I can share this plz and is it ok to share this?

 

[mdemetz]

Mayhem in the city: 25 people shot in 48 hours  - NY Daily News

 

[Classic]

Mayhem in the city: 25 people shot in 48 hours* - NY Daily News

Impossible. They have new laws limiting magazine capacity and banning assault weapons. Must be a mistake in reporting.

 

[eldirector]

Hey el director can you change the word ganges to gangs so I can share this plz and is it ok to share this?

It will be tonight at the earliest, but sure. I'll link my spreadsheet, and you are welcome to use it as you wish.

Here is a link to the SS and chart. Help yourself. Works best if you hit the download link to get the original Excel version.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B6IblSYyfLxvSHA3YTM0c2I0VjQ/edit?usp=sharing

 

[INyooper]

I learned years ago in a stats class that there is a strong correlation between ice cream sales and crime rates. I'm surprised no one is after the dairy producers.

 

[dfranks]

Arizona - a war zone?

Bingo, this is the only reasonable explanation I could find as well.

The same thing I am seeing as well. Arizona appears to have problems with crimes due to drug smuggling. Check out YouTube and you'll find lots of videos on the subject - search 'Arizona Borders'. Here's a video I found from TheRealNews talking abou the problems. At 1st interviewing politicians you'll get the idea that there really isn't a problem there but jump ahead to ~8:45 or 10:45 and you see ranchers disputing that. The ranchers say there really is a big problem. So comparing crime rates in Arizona to Illinios really isn't an accurate comparison as there are other factors involved besides just gun ownership

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pu5zIf-swLo

 

[eldirector]

So, I wanted to play with some number a bit more.

Can anyone point me to some resources for California? I'm looking for dates around anti-gun legislation, anti-self-defense legislation, and economic trends (housing booms/busts, for instance).

Their crime rate shows similar trends. Would be interesting to see what events might be influencing that state.

California Crime Rates 1960 - 2011