INTRADE: 75% Chance Romney wins

[melensdad]

Intrade is essentially an odds making website. Looks like there is a huge level of confidence that Romney will be the next GOP nominee.

 

[rambone]

I wonder how they rated Bob Dole and John McCain.

 

[melensdad]

"They" don't rate. People like you do it. Its an open market website.

 

[ZombieApocolypse]

"They" don't rate. People like you do it. Its an open market website.

Does that mean i can change it like Wiki?

 

[rambone]

Let's check back on this after Iowa.

 

[melensdad]

Does that mean i can change it like Wiki?

No, it means you can influence it with your money by betting on it. Its essentially a commodities trading website but instead of betting on the cost of wheat or pork bellies, people bet on politics or other issues.

Let's check back on this after Iowa.

Instead, how about checking on it after Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida? Seems to me a 'snap shot' of voters from one state is not a very good predictor. Perhaps a snap shot from voters of 4, 6 or even 10 states might be a better way to look at the odds.

 

[rambone]

IEM 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus Market Market Price Graph

 

[KG1]

Let's check back on this after Iowa.

And New Hampshire where it will actually have more relevance as to winning the nomination than Iowa.

 

[ZombieApocolypse]

IEM 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus Market Market Price Graph​

Meine EYES!!!!

 

[pirate]

Might be a good time to bet on Ron Paul then. Big money if he wins.

 

[melensdad]

And New Hampshire where it will actually have more relevance as to winning the nomination than Iowa.

Its very true that history has shown that Iowa has been a very poor predictor of the national mood. I believe that it simply makes more sense to get at least a handful of primaries completed to start to sort out the voters mood. Clearly Iowa voters are in a state of flux.

 

[dross]

I truly hope Paul wins Iowa. He needs some time in the frontrunner seat for two reasons. One, he can get his message out, because he'll be the story for a while. Two, we can see if he can handle the heat. So far, none of them have.

 

[BumpShadow]

I truly hope Paul wins Iowa. He needs some time in the frontrunner seat for two reasons. One, he can get his message out, because he'll be the story for a while. Two, we can see if he can handle the heat. So far, none of them have.

True, even if he doesn't get the nomination, the others will be forced to pick up his winning platforms to beat him. Of course, weather they follow through would remain to be seen, even with Ron Paul. He is still a politican after all.

Still, 75% for Mitt is a little generous. But as long as Perry doesn't get nominated I'll vote for who ever wides up being the winner.

 

[rambone]

7 Reasons Why Mitt Romney's Electability Is A Myth


This one is my favorite. He's the antithesis to those two movements that had so much momentum in the last couple years: The Tea Party & Occupy Wall Street. He was profiting off of taxpayer bailouts while the workers got laid off.

He is the Crony Capitalist that your mother warned you about.

Mitt Romney became rich working for Bain Capital. This has been a plus for Romney in the Republican primaries where the grassroots tend to be dominated by people who love capitalism and the free market. However, in a year when Obama will be running a populist campaign and Occupy Wall Street is demonizing the "1%," Mitt Romney will be a TAILOR MADE villain for them. Did you know that Bain Capital gutted companies and made a lot of money, in part, by laying off a lot of poor and middle class Americans? Do you know that Bain Capital got a federal bailout and Mitt Romney made lots of money off of it?

“The way the company was rescued was with a federal bailout of $10 million,” the ad says. “The rest of us had to absorb the loss … Romney? He and others made $4 million in this deal. … Mitt Romney: Maybe he’s just against government when it helps working men and women.”

If Republicans are dumb enough to nominate Romney, then they deserve Obama. Romney will get dismantled against a strong, well-organized, well-liked, well-funded incumbent.

 

[melensdad]

Romney will get dismantled against a strong, well-organized, well-liked, well-funded incumbent.

But in the newest polling data, Romney is leading Obama.

Romney 45%, Obama 39%

2012 Presidential Matchups - Rasmussen Reports™

 

[indykid]

Romney seems to be the darling of the news media, and since they seem to run things...

 

[melensdad]

Romney seems to be the darling of the news media, and since they seem to run things...

He also is the anointed choice of the GOP establishment, which is, to me, the main reason why he should be opposed. He would bring more of the RINO policies to the office of the President if elected. This is the main reason why I support Ron Paul, he will work to bring back some of the more traditional GOP beliefs to the party. I see no way that Paul can win, but if he can survive the New Hampshire primary with a 3rd, or better yet, a 2nd place finish, then he'll go into some of the other primaries with a bit of momentum. That still won't get close to getting him elected, but it may give him, and the Tea Party side of the GOP, enough clout to mute the RINO wing of the party.

Still, when it comes down to the final vote in November between Obama and ...., I will vote for the most likely candidate that can beat Obama. Anyone but Obama will be better for this nation. Maybe not perfect. But at this point I'll settle for slowing the train before impact into the wall.

 

[Lex Concord]

He also is the anointed choice of the GOP establishment, which is, to me, the main reason why he should be opposed. He would bring more of the RINO policies to the office of the President if elected. This is the main reason why I support Ron Paul, he will work to bring back some of the more traditional GOP beliefs to the party. I see no way that Paul can win, but if he can survive the New Hampshire primary with a 3rd, or better yet, a 2nd place finish, then he'll go into some of the other primaries with a bit of momentum. That still won't get close to getting him elected, but it may give him, and the Tea Party side of the GOP, enough clout to mute the RINO wing of the party.

Still, when it comes down to the final vote in November between Obama and ...., I will vote for the most likely candidate that can beat Obama. Anyone but Obama will be better for this nation. Maybe not perfect. But at this point I'll settle for slowing the train before impact into the wall.

It could also give them some bargaining chips if the convention is close enough...maybe that is what you meant by enough clout

 

[melensdad]

It could also give them some bargaining chips if the convention is close enough...maybe that is what you meant by enough clout

Yes.

At this point I'd take a Romney, Gingrich or Perry as the man behind the big desk . . . but it would be nice if Dr Paul went into the convention with enough delegates to influence the SELECTION OF CABINET MEMBERS and the SELECTION OF THE V.P. so that we'd get some real libertarian leaning, spending cutting, government shrinking conservatives into real positions of influence.

 

[steveh_131]

But in the newest polling data, Romney is leading Obama.

Romney 45%, Obama 39%

2012 Presidential Matchups - Rasmussen Reports™

I'd be careful about those numbers, the fight between Obama and Romney hasn't begun yet. Getting rich from federal bailouts may be quite a key issue when they start flinging dirt after the primary, if Romney gets the nomination.

There's a whole huge group of people who are going to be all sorts of pissed off that he got the handout instead of them.