The Unrealistic Mentality of the Modern Survivalist

[Hoosier8]

An interesting viewpoint.

http://www.survivalblog.com/2011/05/the_unrealistic_mentality_of_t.html

There’s an essay, well-known in survivalist circles, titled Thoughts on Urban Survival. It was written by an Argentinean who detailed his experiences during the 1990s situation in Argentina and he makes it clear that there are many other sort of “collapses” that are possible, such as the partial collapse. This Argentinean had to survive in a major urban area with a massively depressed economy, issues of hyper-inflation, etc, in an area prone to danger and violence. He reported that simply avoiding being kidnapped, robbed, mugged, carjacked, or killed, on a daily basis, became something of a chore and was seen as an accomplishment. There were no armed gangs (with machine gun armed "technicals") cruising around the city openly looting stores and besieging foreign embassies. Instead there was a massive increase in street level crime against ordinary individuals, which much of the crime being perpetrated by seemingly ordinary individuals who had previously held respectable jobs.

He reported that those who were in the city were in a pretty bad way, but almost as worse, if not more so in some ways, were those who were 30-40 miles outside the city in remote/isolated country homes, as organized criminal gangs numbering anywhere from 5-20+ thugs/criminals would drive out of the cities, go into these isolated areas, case the most isolated and inviting target, and then do a nasty/violent home invasion/take-over, that would usually entail torture, rape, and murder. The people were too isolated to receive any help from neighbors, local/regional police/authorities/etc. They were just as doomed as though they were in the cities, only more so in some cases as the criminals operating in the cities seldom were able to spend hours in an apartment, torturing and raping, they would strike quick on the street, grab a purse, steal a car, and then flee, while in the countryside, with no neighbors, no police, nobody else to worry about, they spent hours on the farmsteads, taking their time to steal everything of value, torturing the residents if they felt they were was a hidden safe or that valuables were concealed somewhere, and raping any women they desired to rape.

The Argentine survivor declared that those who managed to avoid the bulk of the trouble due to the collapsed Argentine economy were those who lived in or fairly close to, close-knit small towns where residents looked out for each other and where the locals (be they basic residents or local authorities) knew who belonged in the town and who did not belong in the town. The people who were most vulnerable were the most isolated rural-dwelling individuals, with a close second being the urban dwellers. The typical American survivalist seems to believe that being in the middle of nowhere in Iowa or Kentucky will assure he is reasonably safe when the fact of the matter is that armed and organized gangs in South Africa routinely drive two to three hours from the cities (such as Johannesburg), into the countryside, to launch their farm invasions/attacks. The only true possibility of total isolation in the United States will be found in Alaska, so unless you are in Alaska you might consider that you’re better off with a nearby small town than you are being two hours away from even a small village of a few hundred people. One step you might take in the immediate future is to get to know your neighbors. A lot of survivalists seem to believe that their neighbors will just prey on them and try to take their supplies or leech off of their preparations and that may prove to be the case. However, it is almost guaranteed that if you have no rapport with your neighbors they probably won’t think twice about harming you. If you have a solid friendship built over multiple years you may be able to guide them into beginning their own preparations.

 

[shibumiseeker]

While I appreciated Ferfal's first person viewpoint posting on arfcom as the situation in Argentina was happening, I also found a lot of fault in his analysis of many things that were going on at the time and then extrapolating those analyses to everywhere and everyone (something he does a LOT of). His big flaw is the same as any evangelist who lives through a life changing event, he feels that because what happened to him was so traumatic, he tends to focus on that and ignores other factors, kind of like how activist organizations are often founded by people who lived through something (MADD is a great example).

I have studied contemporary social collapses around the world and those in history (every good survivalist should) and the first thing that leaps out is that how they go down are rarely the same in any area and how quickly it happens and how much warning sign were present at the time are also often very different.

ANYONE who extrapolates what happens from one event is doing themselves a disservice. What happened in Argentina is a good lesson to study, but to assume that it will only happen like that is wrong.

 

[churchmouse]

I see some truth in this as the thugs are very mobile now. They roll from their "Hoods" out to the Burbs to look for more affluent targets. It has been the trend lately.
Our main fear is the locals. No one has more than a few days supply's on hand anymore. Many eat out near every meal. They will be the ones to watch. Hunger/cold/pain are all great motivators and will push the level of Honor and Morality off to the side very quickly.

 

[strokin7.3]

I'm not too worried about the thugs driving out to me. That $6 they put in their gas tank last time they "filled up" wont get them very far.

 

[Leadeye]

Meh, they won't find Shib, and if they find me it will be a "mad minute" for the books.

 

[metaldog]

I agree with churchmouse on this. Most of the local live paycheck to paycheck, whether it be welfare or otherwise, and do not stock up , so to speak. When the money & the food run out, they will be turning over every stone to find what they want.

 

[shibumiseeker]

Meh, they won't find Shib, and if they find me it will be a "mad minute" for the books.

You start hearing the fifty speaking and you'll have some warning...

 

[Leadeye]

I can hear the 50 talking from my house, should make a impression on the approaching transgressors.

 

[6mm Shoot]

I don't know what the next trouble will be or how bad the government will let it get. If you want to survive it you will have to have family and friends to make it through the trouble. A lone wolf is pray for a pack. You can't grow and prep food and watch your back. You will need friends and family to make it.

There is no way I want to live in the city. That will be ground zero for the worst of what will happen. Stores will empty out in a matter of a week. If the government don't step in and feed the people they will take things in their own hands and help them selves to what they need and that will not be pretty.

The police may be able to control things at first but they can't control odds of 4000 to one or better. They will either give up or die when the masses go on the hunt. I have seen what people running a muck can do and no one can control them. When the riots started in Miami the police tried to arrest people and ended up running for their lives. They decided it was better to contain things than to die trying to arrest people. People with no food and hungry have nothing to lose. They will do what ever it takes to get what they need. There will be dead in the streets on a grand scale if things go really bad.

 

[Amishman44]

I don't know what the next trouble will be or how bad the government will let it get. If you want to survive it you will have to have family and friends to make it through the trouble. A lone wolf is pray for the pack. You can't grow and prep food and watch your back. You will need friends and family to make it.

There is no way I want to live in the city. That will be ground zero for the worst of what will happen. Stores will empty out in a matter of a week. If the government don't step in and feed the people they will take things in their own hands and help them selves to what they need and that will not be pretty.

The police may be able to control things at first but they can't control odds of 4000 to one or beter. They will either give up or die when the masses go on the hunt. I have seen what people running a muck can do and no one can control them. When the riots started in Miami the police tried to arrest people and end up running for their lives. They decided it was better to contain things than to die trying to arrest people.

Our plan, if anything extends beyond 3 days...is to move to my dad's farm in the country where there are several sets of amish neighbors. We have three levels of moving planned, if we're able to return to retrieve additional items.

Most of the cops I know will be busy protecting their families instead of patroling the streets and dealing with thugs...thugs will get hungry quickly, then desperate, and then things will become very volatile at best!

 

[churchmouse]

I don't know what the next trouble will be or how bad the government will let it get. If you want to survive it you will have to have family and friends to make it through the trouble. A lone wolf is pray for a pack. You can't grow and prep food and watch your back. You will need friends and family to make it.

There is no way I want to live in the city. That will be ground zero for the worst of what will happen. Stores will empty out in a matter of a week. If the government don't step in and feed the people they will take things in their own hands and help them selves to what they need and that will not be pretty.

The police may be able to control things at first but they can't control odds of 4000 to one or better. They will either give up or die when the masses go on the hunt. I have seen what people running a muck can do and no one can control them. When the riots started in Miami the police tried to arrest people and ended up running for their lives. They decided it was better to contain things than to die trying to arrest people. People with no food and hungry have nothing to lose. They will do what ever it takes to get what they need. There will be dead in the streets on a grand scale if things go really bad.

If you watched the relatively organized rush on the stores this winter it only took 1 shopping day to smash the stores shelves. The mere threat of a snowmagedin and boom, empty shelves.

Put this scenario up to a mjor SHTF deal and the stores are bum rushed and empty in a matter of hours not days. At that point LEO will be with family as they should be. Thugs live meal to meal so give that cycle about 12 hours and mayhem is rolling down a street near you.

If the infrastructure fails in-mass I give Indy 24 hrs. before it is ground zero. The 40% will be rolling out to gett what they can to stay warm/fed or just take for the taking.

 

[cobber]

Thugs may not be the biggest problem, as much as 'normal' folks become desperate.

 

[churchmouse]

Thugs may not be the biggest problem, as much as 'normal' folks become desperate.

Add it all up and situation critical..........

Folks with kids looking for food/shelter. What do you do. Can not feed/house them all. Can not shoot them all so what to do...................Run

 

[cobber]

Add it all up and situation critical..........

Folks with kids looking for food/shelter. What do you do. Can not feed/house them all. Can not shoot them all so what to do...................Run

You can run, but you can't... hide?

 

[chraland51]

If the economy collapses and runs on the banks begin and food riots take place, I hope that I will already be at my cabin in the woods amongst like minded people who might not be my relatives, but are at least my friends and are equally, if not better equipped than I and have the same goals as I do which is to ride out the storm and survive as long as we can. We have already discussed as very basic strategy and have a good idea of how the work will be divided to maximize our efforts. Some are full time residents and some just weekenders, but all will have the same goals. No area is totally defensible, but at least the access roads can be easily patrolled and defended against most non-military types with equipment similar to ours. Our few basic outdoor skills should go a long way in protecting ourselves from the wandering city-dwellers who might venture far away from their territory to scavage what they can. That ghillie suit that we all laughed at as a waste of money may turn out to have been a good investment. Those old movies of the 60s and 70s that we all found to be futuristic and very entertaining are no longer fiction, but real possibilities. Who knows? I plan to live my life in my typical normal manner, but that little cabin in the woods could turn out to be more than just the place of relaxation for which it was originally purchased.

 

[churchmouse]

You can run, but you can't... hide?

Yeah but I can try......

Not so much the running but the hiding.

 

[Kart29]

I think perhaps there are some differences betwixt rural Argentina and rural USA. Might make it less likely for groups of 5-20 thugs from the city to successfully carry out criminal raids on isolated homes out in the country. They may get away with it once or twice but I think they'd be taking their lives in their hands on every raid and would soon pick the wrong house and their raiding days would come to an abrupt conclusion.

 

[churchmouse]

I think perhaps there are some differences betwixt rural Argentina and rural USA. Might make it less likely for groups of 5-20 thugs from the city to successfully carry out criminal raids on isolated homes out in the country. They may get away with it once or twice but I think they'd be taking their lives in their hands on every raid and would soon pick the wrong house and their raiding days would come to an abrupt conclusion.

Have you seen how many low lifes and thugs roll freely in the city. Yes, one raiding party may meet it's end but trust me.....there will be hundreds of them.

 

[cosermann]

While I appreciated Ferfal's first person viewpoint posting on arfcom as the situation in Argentina was happening, I also found a lot of fault in his analysis of many things that were going on at the time and then extrapolating those analyses to everywhere and everyone ...

ANYONE who extrapolates what happens from one event is doing themselves a disservice. What happened in Argentina is a good lesson to study, but to assume that it will only happen like that is wrong.

Interesting point. Studying what happened in Argentina is one data point, and can give insight on how things like this sometimes work themselves out.

However, how it would apply to yourtown, Indiana, is fuzzier.

Comparing the aftermath of flooding in New Orleans (to other parts of the coast flooded by Katrina), and flooding in Nashville illustrates this. Significantly different aftermath from locale to locale.

Much depends on the local culture and character of the people.

 

[cobber]

Yeah but I can try......

Not so much the running but the hiding.

At my age, I'm planning on walking rapidly.