Wait times going up per 41p

[RA8]

I admit, I didn't look around to make sure this hasnt been covered, but I applied for a trust and suppressor from silencershop when I saw the wait times going down below three months. Just like my stock market success, as soon as I enter my position, the market turns. Waiting times are shooting through the roof. I hadnt even heard of 41p until this week. Anyone willing to take a ballpark guess as to how much this will effect my waiting time? My suppressor shipped from texas after being approved dealer to dealer one week ago. My guess, is I will be waiting until at least the end of November-december if my form 4 goes pending this week as it is supposed to judging from how sharply the SBR waiting times shot up. curses.

 

[wsenefeld]

Wait times continue to go down on paper forms and up on efile. My last Form 4 went pending 2/6/15 and was approved 5/7/15. Efile is currently around 80 days from submitted to approved. Being that there hasn't been a ruling on 41p and most indications are showing it'll get pushed back another 6 months, I don't see 41p being the largest contributor to the wait times.

Countless people built AR pistols using the fugly Sig Brace. As always, we are our own worst enemy so somebody got the bright idea to write the ATF asking if we could shoulder the Sig Brace to intentionally circumvent the NFA and having to pay the $200 stamp. The bear got tired of being poked so the ATF posted their scare tactic ruling of "shoulder the darn thing and you'll have turned it into an unregistered SBR and we'll prosecute your dumba$$." I believe this lead to the increase in efile wait times as everybody and their mother was ditching the brace and turning their rifles into legit SBRs. The following week, the EE on arfcom was flooded with dirt cheap Sig Braces. The first page had 15-20 and all being sold for $75 or less.

The biggest contributor to the recent increase in wait times is the shear number of people getting into the NFA game and the increasingly popular trust route. In 2003, a total of 45 trusts were submitted. Last year there were over 36,000 trusts submitted. Overall, wait times have gone down significantly compared to just 2 years ago when they were 12+ months from pending to approved.

 

[RA8]

Please note the sharp increase in the FORM 1 Trust Efile(sbr blue triangles) but also a rise in the wait times for the Form 4 Paper(blue squares). The fact that these Both went up at the same time gives me the impression that they were related in some way. IE People trying to get a trust with an NFA item approved to have their trust grandfathered in in case something were to happen.

 

[RA8]

The individual wait time and the trust wait time for form 4's will cross paths if the current trends continue.

 

[wsenefeld]

The graph is from NFA tracker which is only as accurate as the people putting in the info. The graph shows the sharp curve in January/February 2015... so why is that when 41p was introduced in 2013? Why didn't the graph take a sharp up curve then? You're also only talking about efiled F1s going from 30-90 days so it's not like the wait got exponentially longer.

So what happened in January to make the curve start? Oh yeah, the ATF made their statement in January of 2015 about the Sig Brace... Also, companies like SDTA seemed to become very popular almost overnight when people started posting DIYs on making efiled Form 1 suppressors.

So where's the correlation between 41p and Jan/Feb 2015?

 

[wsenefeld]

The graph also shows an upward trend from Oct 2013 to Dec 2013. 41p was proposed in Dec 2013 so why did wait times go down after that?

Also seeing a lot of efiled Form 4s between Oct 2014 to March 2015. Form 4s haven't been on the efile system for over a year now so...

 

[FAL]

A lot of guys are submitting Form1s for suppressors now too, so I imagine that's some of the increased load. It looks like the wait times for both F4s and F1s started to increase in January, for whatever reason...