Will you REALLY survive SHTF? Unlikely.

[garlic_b]

Hmmm...

I was thinking something close to that... But mine was Guns, Booze, Women, and Food...

Guns, Women, Booze, Food: If the women are hot.
Guns, Booze, Women, Food: If not!

 

[trnsplntfrmohio]

back home we have 18 acres, plenty of railroad ties and old tubing combined with barbed wire would make a secure area. we'd fence off the house and lake. I have enough food, water and vitimans to last 2 weeks. I figure if I can survive 2 weeks after shtf I should have a couple spare boxes of ammo to buy a trade for a tank of gas to make it home. Otherwise it's 7-9 day on foot.

 

[Bunnykid68]

Have a year supply of food, water, and ammo to protect your food and water.

 

[SemperFiUSMC]

I have posed the same question. My guess is that in a prolonged SHTF situation, most decent, God loving people will be dead within 90 days. I think I have less than a 50% chance of making it past 90 days. I have a warrior spirit so I won't go gently into that good night, but I will ultimately sucumb just like everyone else.

Let's look at all the forces working against you.

SHTF EVENT

1. Whatever the event is that causes the SHTF will kill some folks.

MEDICAL

1. Anyone on life prolonging meds (i.e. insulin) will be sick or dead within days of running out of those meds. You can't just stockpile meds - many have shelf lives or environmental conditions that must be met.
2. Anyone in the hospital or long care facility will be dead within hours or days.
3. Anyone under direct doctor's care for a chronic condition (diabetes, dialysis, etc) will be dead within weeks or months.

MENTAL

1. Even if you make it to the 90 day mark, most of the people you know and love will not. This will lead to depression even in people that have never suffered it.
2. Anyone suffering from or succeptible to depression will lose the will to live very quickly.
3. You will most likely have to move from familiar surroundings in order to survive.

WATER

1. If you don't have access to clean, potable water you'll be dead in a week.
2. Water from a waterway is unsafe unless you are at the headwater.
3. Ground water may or may not be safe. Most people lack the ability to test water for unsafe microbes and bacteria.
4. You may have to kill somone who is contaminating your water.

FOOD

1. Lack of food will debilitate you within 2 weeks and kill you within 30 days.
2. Prey and farm animals will die at a rate higher than that of humans making hunting, fishing and consuming raised animals a short term capability.
3. Once you run out of food you'll have to kill someone else for theirs.

SUPPLIES

1. You cannot count on access to gasoline, diesel, natural gas, propane, heating oil, or other combustible material not in your immediate control at the time of the SHTF event.

EXERCISE AND PHYSICAL CONDITIONS

1. If you can't do exhaustive exercise now you won't be able to do it under the stress of a SHTF scenerio.
2. If you sustain an injury that gets infected but you don't have antibiotics, tetnus shots, etc, you could die.

SECURITY

1. Most people have never pointed a gun at someone and pulled the trigger.
2. You will burn through 1K rounds in about 2 hours of any sort of organized assault against you if you have to protect yourself.
3. Most people cannot defend themself against 1 aggressor, let alone 3 or 30.
4. Somone shooting at you will have automatic weapons, supperior firepower, and training to kill you.

PREPPING

1. If you are not around your stuff when SHTF it will not do you any good.
2. Even if you have prepped you have half of what you need.
3. If you can't carry it with you it's not yours anymore.
4. 99% of people will be totally unprepared. Many of them will kill you for your stuff.
5. None of your family will be prepared, but will expect you to share your supplies to save them.

These are just some issues that you'll face. You need to be able to address every one of these issues, and many, many more.

 

[Wabatuckian]

It occurs to me that the Middle Ages were a major SHTF scenario, and we got through it.

 

[SemperFiUSMC]

Apples and oranges. Yes, it was a SHTF situation. However, the difference between then and now is that people of the times were much stronger, used to living with nothing, and just flat out died when they got sick. London was the largest city in the world with a population of 60,000 people. People lived in thatch huts and grew and raised their own food. They were already living for survival. They didn't have to learn to live without running water, electricity, automobiles, etc.

It occurs to me that the Middle Ages were a major SHTF scenario, and we got through it.

 

[DanO]

Semper Fi - Are you / were you a Marine?

 

[SemperFiUSMC]

Yep.

Semper Fi - Are you / were you a Marine?

 

[Bisley Man]

I agree with SemperFiUSMC IF shtf IS a MAJOR Historic catastrophe. Meteor the size of a small town hits the earth, multiple nukes, super swine/bird flu...many won't make it the first day. We just do what we can, store food,water, make plans. My worst fear IS that the SHTF while at work, out of town, etc. But , we still have lives to live,earn a living, save for retirement in case NOTHING happens (imagine that)Don't worry about it too much

 

[Cpt Caveman]

Semper fi ought to just lay down and die right now.
Lets see;Some will die in the initial S hitting it,anyone on meds that keep em alive, in a hospital or a long term care facility will be dead. Even those that prep will be dead because they were stupid and didn't prep but half of what they needed,. Those in poor physical or mental condition, without clean water, food or shelter,or enough bullets wiil be dead also.

"I have a warrior spirit so I won't go gently into that good night, but I will ultimately sucumb just like everyone else."
You're already dead.
Positive mental attitude will keep body and soul together better than a defeatist "I'm gonna die in the end no matter what I do" philosophy.
Unless you are one of the life saving meds folks. If that's the case I'd have a plan to break into the nearest pharmacy, heavily armed, to get what I needed to survive as long as I could.

 

[SemperFiUSMC]

I should just lay down and die right now? That's no way to introduce yourself, Hans.

I was sharing thoughts about why many will be dead within 90 days. I'm prepared; probably a lot better than most Star Wars warriors and folks who go buy two extra cans of beans a week and call that prepping. I've pointed a gun at somone in anger; I'm not at all constrained by concience from doing it again if they would do or my family me harm. I'm at ease with my God and believe it is is His will for me to be prepared for whatever fate befalls me. Don't drink, don't smoke, don't drink pop, don't take any meds. Slightly heavier than my fighting weight when I was in the Corps, but nothing that couldn't be worked off in 30 days. I'm good enough at security and have the proper tools that it would take more than a few people to get the drop on me. As a former Marine sniper with a very developed skill set to use weapons that I posess at a very long distance, they better be better at what I used to do professionally than I am. I guarantee the vast majority are not.

Placing my own odds at under 50% has nothing to do with my preparations or will to live. I do realize and accept that as a social creature the loss of my family and friends, many whom are not in the physical condition I am in, would have a profound effect on my psyche. The variable is how I would react to being alone. Also, while I have a strong will to survive, it is not so strong that I would be willing to kill others simply to take control of their possessions. That puts me in a precarious position, but one that I am morally OK with.

Now if I was a fat little troll that plays with dolls, I would put my chances at under 1%. I'm not.

Semper fi ought to just lay down and die right now.
Lets see;Some will die in the initial S hitting it,anyone on meds that keep em alive, in a hospital or a long term care facility will be dead. Even those that prep will be dead because they were stupid and didn't prep but half of what they needed,. Those in poor physical or mental condition, without clean water, food or shelter,or enough bullets wiil be dead also.

"I have a warrior spirit so I won't go gently into that good night, but I will ultimately sucumb just like everyone else."
You're already dead.
Positive mental attitude will keep body and soul together better than a defeatist "I'm gonna die in the end no matter what I do" philosophy.
Unless you are one of the life saving meds folks. If that's the case I'd have a plan to break into the nearest pharmacy, heavily armed, to get what I needed to survive as long as I could.

 

[flagtag]

I should just lay down and die right now? That's no way to introduce yourself, Hans.

I was sharing thoughts about why many will be dead within 90 days. I'm prepared; probably a lot better than most Star Wars warriors and folks who go buy two extra cans of beans a week and call that prepping. I've pointed a gun at somone in anger; I'm not at all constrained by concience from doing it again if they would do or my family me harm. I'm at ease with my God and believe it is is His will for me to be prepared for whatever fate befalls me. Don't drink, don't smoke, don't drink pop, don't take any meds. Slightly heavier than my fighting weight when I was in the Corps, but nothing that couldn't be worked off in 30 days. I'm good enough at security and have the proper tools that it would take more than a few people to get the drop on me. As a former Marine sniper with a very developed skill set to use weapons that I posess at a very long distance, they better be better at what I used to do professionally than I am. I guarantee the vast majority are not.

Placing my own odds at under 50% has nothing to do with my preparations or will to live. I do realize and accept that as a social creature the loss of my family and friends, many whom are not in the physical condition I am in, would have a profound effect on my psyche. The variable is how I would react to being alone. Also, while I have a strong will to survive, it is not so strong that I would be willing to kill others simply to take control of their possessions. That puts me in a precarious position, but one that I am morally OK with.

Now if I was a fat little troll that plays with dolls, I would put my chances at under 1%. I'm not.

You obviously don't have enough faith in your fellow man/woman. True, there are many who would fail, but then there others who would rip your head off with their bare hands under the right situation. (Mother protecting her young for example). One doesn't have to be a veteran of the military to be a survivor.
Watch out for exploding heads.

 

[XDinmyXJ]

When SHTF I am heading for the hills of KY! If it gets to the point where i may not survive, I am going out with a bang! The likelyhood of a handicapped guy surviving when his Ammo Runs out is not good. I have gotten pretty good at surviving but when we are talking War and Pandemonium I'm just gonna enjoy the time I have left.

 

[XDinmyXJ]

Semper fi ought to just lay down and die right now.
Lets see;Some will die in the initial S hitting it,anyone on meds that keep em alive, in a hospital or a long term care facility will be dead. Even those that prep will be dead because they were stupid and didn't prep but half of what they needed,. Those in poor physical or mental condition, without clean water, food or shelter,or enough bullets wiil be dead also.

"I have a warrior spirit so I won't go gently into that good night, but I will ultimately sucumb just like everyone else."
You're already dead.
Positive mental attitude will keep body and soul together better than a defeatist "I'm gonna die in the end no matter what I do" philosophy.
Unless you are one of the life saving meds folks. If that's the case I'd have a plan to break into the nearest pharmacy, heavily armed, to get what I needed to survive as long as I could.

Wow, way to make friends.

 

[Cpt Caveman]

Well, I wasn't trying to make an enemy but that post just struck me as defeatist and I can't work from a world view like that. If I didn't think that me and mine were gonna "make it" I wouldn't prepare for anything. I gotta work from a positive position on the whole concept or I'm not gonna be able to accomplish anything.
I respect your opinion, Semper , wasn't trying to start a urination competition. Just don't necessarily agree with you is all. I see no reason why if what you've told us about yourself is true you wouldn't have a very high chance of surviving.

 

[Redemption]

I'll be around...

 

[longbow]

My family and I should be around alittle longer than those in the cities......

Just depends on where the shtf event happens....

 

[SemperFiUSMC]

I get where you were coming from. I might have selected some different words, but sometimes I don't either. We're all good.

Well, I wasn't trying to make an enemy but that post just struck me as defeatist and I can't work from a world view like that. If I didn't think that me and mine were gonna "make it" I wouldn't prepare for anything. I gotta work from a positive position on the whole concept or I'm not gonna be able to accomplish anything.
I respect your opinion, Semper , wasn't trying to start a urination competition. Just don't necessarily agree with you is all. I see no reason why if what you've told us about yourself is true you wouldn't have a very high chance of surviving.

 

[DanO]

Semper FI - I thought the same thing from your post, which is why I asked if you were former/active Corps. It did not seem like something I would hear from a gyrene. (No offense - Former 82nd Abn scout who used to jump with your ANGLICOs). Your last post should have been part of the first, now we get where you are coming from.

 

[WeAreNotAlone]

Your watchin too much TV. Train, prepare, react. I for one am planning on doing O.K.

+1 to the above.

PS: You guys do know that the info you're being spoon fed in regards there's No Hope.... Is coming from the same people that want to disarm you.
(The Liberal media)
The don't want people thinking for themselves, they want people totally dependent on the Government for everything.