Turkey really shoots down a Mig today

[2ADMNLOVER]

You fly a warplane over another nation's sovereign territory, you run the risk of it being shot down. Turkey was completely justified. Russia has been playing recklessly, and this time it was Turkey who did the stuffing. **** Russia.

I guess 17 seconds is a really long incursion huh ?

 

[Birds Away]

I guess 17 seconds is a really long incursion huh ?

There were numerous incursions. This one just hit the tripwire that had been put in place.

 

[Zoub]

An SU-24? Crap that thing looks like an FB-111 and the Su-24M (M is the model, as in there were A, B, C, D, E, you get the point) came out in 1983. You go up against a NATO F-16 without air-to-air capability in close proximity? You'll get smoked! Oh wait, that happened.

My Dad flew in Combat Lancer and Harvest Reaper, had lots of stories of beating pilots over the head with his clip boards to get them to break off and not dog fight on the way home.

This simple fact adds to my belief Putin was fine with two things, blasting hell out of some ground targets and losing a plane so he can bluff NATO. Obama will never come to the defense of Turkey.

Best use of 1960's technology in Combat award (and probably 1990's computers) goes to Putin.

 

[Kutnupe14]

I guess 17 seconds is a really long incursion huh ?

Greater than 0 secs is too long an incursion.

 

[Lowe0]

I guess 17 seconds is a really long incursion huh ?

How long would an armed Russian aircraft inside US airspace be acceptable to you?

 

[Kutnupe14]

Famous last words of how many folks who have tangled with Russia.


Let's see how NATO responds if the balloon really goes up. I mean, it's not like climate-change serious, and the 80's got their foreign policy back, so it's all cool.

So let's just let Russia disregard other nation's sovereignty at will? Russia hasn't taken on a capable, modern military since what WW2, and the last major war they participated in, was a complete disaster. They love beating on their smaller neighbors, but Turkey is a different animal, even without NATO support. Russia doesn't have the economic might to commit to a full-fledged shooting war with Turkey.

 

[Kutnupe14]

How long would an armed Russian aircraft inside US airspace be acceptable to you?

Apparently 17 seconds is the minimum.

 

[T.Lex]

I am seriously dubious that Turkey has closed off the Black Sea. In some ways, that would be far more aggressive than shooting down the Russian aircraft. If the Russian ships have remained in harbor for 3 days, it is because they did not want to leave.

And even if we stretch our imaginations and imagine that the TuAF is the equal of the Russian Air Force, it would still be hard to make the case that the Turkish Navy was any match for the Black Sea Fleet.

 

[Kutnupe14]

I am seriously dubious that Turkey has closed off the Black Sea. In some ways, that would be far more aggressive than shooting down the Russian aircraft. If the Russian ships have remained in harbor for 3 days, it is because they did not want to leave.

And even if we stretch our imaginations and imagine that the TuAF is the equal of the Russian Air Force, it would still be hard to make the case that the Turkish Navy was any match for the Black Sea Fleet.

Gotta disagree. The Turkish Navy would IMO smash the Black Sea Fleet. As for the respective air forces, we can't just look at pure numbers, because obviously the Russians have that advantage. The question is how many aircraft can Russia field if a conflict ensued. It's a pretty fair bet that it will be "all hands on deck" for Turkey, but Russia in no way can do the same. If they committed all theater military capabilities to a Turkish campaign, the would be quite vulnerable to attack from other NATO forces, if they decided to join the fray.

 

[Birds Away]

Gotta disagree. The Turkish Navy would IMO smash the Black Sea Fleet. As for the respective air forces, we can't just look at pure numbers, because obviously the Russians have that advantage. The question is how many aircraft can Russia field if a conflict ensued. It's a pretty fair bet that it will be "all hands on deck" for Turkey, but Russia in no way can do the same. If they committed all theater military capabilities to a Turkish campaign, the would be quite vulnerable to attack from other NATO forces, if they decided to join the fray.

I don't know what the Russian order of battle is in the Black Sea. There has always been a difference between reported strength and actual combat ready strength when you talk about Russian arms. There are so many other considerations here that it is too convoluted to just say the Turkish navy vs. the Black Sea fleet.

 

[T.Lex]

Gotta disagree. The Turkish Navy would IMO smash the Black Sea Fleet. As for the respective air forces, we can't just look at pure numbers, because obviously the Russians have that advantage. The question is how many aircraft can Russia field if a conflict ensued.

Even on that, although the Russian forces in Syria are relatively few (and now they are -1), they essentially have Turkey flanked from the start.

The Russians cannot let Turkey shut down the Dardenelles. The Orders of Battle and matchups make for an interesting intellectual exercise, but I think the Russians would have the clear advantage. (As you note, the air battle would be key.)

It's a pretty fair bet that it will be "all hands on deck" for Turkey, but Russia in no way can do the same. If they committed all theater military capabilities to a Turkish campaign, the would be quite vulnerable to attack from other NATO forces, if they decided to join the fray.

You're assuming NATO will support a Black Sea blockade.

That would truly be committing to WWIII. I don't see any path away from a war to kick Russia out of the Crimean peninsula after that.

I wonder if the Ukraine and Turkey have some sort of side deal. Russia doubled down on the Crimean, and now Turkey tries to bottle them up? That just doesn't make sense.

Something else to consider is that when it comes to air battles with the TuAF, the Greeks have their own history. There's been a diplomatic escalation on that front since the shoot-down of the Russian jet, with Greece claiming airspace incursions. (Although, I seriously doubt they were over Greek sovereign territory, rather, it was probably over "protected" and disputed airspace.)

 

[T.Lex]

Ok, so this is interesting:
Turkey Warns Russia it Will Blockade Bosphorus if Violence Occurs | Ukrainian Policy

Not sure how credible it was/is, since it is truly from the Ukrainian perspective. But...

According to diplomatic sources, Turkey has threatened Russia with a blockade of the Bosphorus Strait

Clearly, it did not happen. But, if true, it adds another dimension to any such action. It may have been planned for (although not necessarily planned) for quite a while.

 

[Birds Away]

Ok, so this is interesting:
Turkey Warns Russia it Will Blockade Bosphorus if Violence Occurs | Ukrainian Policy

Not sure how credible it was/is, since it is truly from the Ukrainian perspective. But...


Clearly, it did not happen. But, if true, it adds another dimension to any such action. It may have been planned for (although not necessarily planned) for quite a while.

It will be very interesting how NATO comes down on this. I think most people would consider this a provocative act by Turkey and might allow the allies some wiggle room as to whether to come to Turkey's aid if a shooting war starts.

 

[Fargo]

I guess 17 seconds is a really long incursion huh ?

How far can a plane travel into a country at 17 seconds at 800 mph? The SU24 tops out a bit faster than that.

 

[T.Lex]

It will be very interesting how NATO comes down on this. I think most people would consider this a provocative act by Turkey and might allow the allies some wiggle room as to whether to come to Turkey's aid if a shooting war starts.

Shooting down a foreign aircraft over your own homeland is one thing.

Blockading Russia's only warm-water port (I think that's still true), at the onset of winter, is an entirely different thing. In all honesty, I think it would be reasonable for Putin to consider that an attack on Mother Russia.

 

[Birds Away]

Shooting down a foreign aircraft over your own homeland is one thing.

Blockading Russia's only warm-water port (I think that's still true), at the onset of winter, is an entirely different thing. In all honesty, I think it would be reasonable for Putin to consider that an attack on Mother Russia.

Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail. This is where alliances become sticky.

 

[pudly]

Russia Sends NATO A Clear Message By Arming Fighter Jets With First Air-To-Air Missles | Zero Hedge

 

[T.Lex]

Confirmation:
Russia equips planes with air-to-air missiles in Syria

Also, the Su-34 is a real deal aircraft, based on the Su-27 design.

 

[Kutnupe14]

Russia Sends NATO A Clear Message By Arming Fighter Jets With First Air-To-Air Missles | Zero Hedge

Are we to believe they weren't armed that way before?

 

[T.Lex]

Are we to believe they weren't armed that way before?

Sorta. That airframe probably wasn't armed with them - instead using that weight for more bombs.

Regardless, they are now making it very public.

So, reflect a bit on this episode from October.
The Aviationist » U.S. F-16s came within 20 miles from Russian Su-34s in Syria

U.S. F-16s out of Incirlik, Turkey, first picked up the Russian planes (Su-34s in the animation shown in the video linked below) on their radars. The RuAF jets closed to within 20 miles from the F-16s, a distance where the American pilots could visually identify them by means of their targeting pods.

Now, the Russians will know there are F-16s in the area based on radar signatures and things like that. But, they won't know whether it is US or Turkish. The prior deconfliction agreement forbade the parties from locking up with tracking/fire control radars. We'll see if that remains in place.

Along similar lines, what if Assad asks for Russia's help in maintaining its own sovereign airspace? Just like Turkey has a right to shoot down unknown aircraft that crosses the border, Syria has that right, too.