Turkey really shoots down a Mig today

[Principal Skinr]

Agreed. But he knows what he wants, doesn't take crap from anyone, and won't back down.

He'll be backing down on this one. There really is not much he can do to the Turks without starting a major war, in which case the Turks would have the upper hand in their neck of the woods. Their air force is strong and very well equipped, and is a very professional force. The Russians have a hard enough time going up against foes of much lesser quality and quantity. Plus, Turkey has Article 5 of Nato backing them up. Putin will stand down on this, all the while shooting off from the mouth. He'll look a lot like more like our president on this one.

Nato and Eastern European countries are applauding the Turks because the Russians have been violating their airspace routinely, with no consequences. Their behavior has been reckless and unprofessional. They had it coming. I'm sorry it cost the lives of the pilots, but their leadership is to blame.

Of course, who knows....those pilots were probably dropping dumb bombs and killing civillians, so I can't pass judgement from afar on the people who shot them. It just didn't look or feel right to see them shot up in the parachutes. Rules of war have in the past said it was only ok to do that if they were parachuting over their own territory because they may fly again. This war is UGLY, and very scary. I can't imagine what it is like for people caught in the crossfire.

This is all just my humble opinion, so take it for what it is worth.

 

[cobber]

Putin doesn't have to go toe to toe with the Turks. Just funnel some weapons to any anti-government movement and let the mischief begin. Turkey's not a client of Russia, so he has no stake in whoever's in power in Ankara now.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

All Russian bombers in Syria will now be escorted by fighters.

Putin: Turkey downed Russian fighter jet to protect ISIS oil sales

Russia deploys missile cruiser off Syria coast, ordered to destroy any target posing danger

Turkish military release radar image tracking Russian fighter jet over Turkish territory before attack. Radar shows Russian jet only over Turkey for 10 seconds.

Gotta ask again...

Who's lying here? US? NATO? Turkey? Russia?

 

[EvilElmo]

All Russian bombers in Syria will now be escorted by fighters.

Putin: Turkey downed Russian fighter jet to protect ISIS oil sales

Russia deploys missile cruiser off Syria coast, ordered to destroy any target posing danger

Turkish military release radar image tracking Russian fighter jet over Turkish territory before attack. Radar shows Russian jet only over Turkey for 10 seconds.

Gotta ask again...

Who's lying here? US? NATO? Turkey? Russia?

If you don't mind conspiracy theories Conservative Treehouse has an explanation that makes some sense:
What If The Turkish Shooting Of Russian Fighter Jet Was Also To Protect President Obama??. | The Last Refuge

 

[T.Lex]

He's not an adept players, he's just better than his contemporaries.

Including the current administration. And he is adept, by any historical measurement. He's no Michael Jordan, but he's a solid Reggie Miller.

Then perhaps the pilots should carry white flags to unfurl as they descend, pop a can of red smoke, have something that makes a lot of noise. A pilot falling to the ground isnt thinking "oh I'm a non-combatant now." They're thinking evade capture. If it's not CLEAR you're giving up, you should be fair game.

Unless the Syrian rebels are signatories to whatever Convention(s) prohibit shooting parachuting pilots, I'm unclear why anyone would think them bound by or protected by them?

That video link was a good review of the tradition. But, I think part of it depends on whether the shooters' military has an air force. You don't want the other guys shooting at your ejected pilots, so you don't shoot at their's.

Who's lying here? US? NATO? Turkey? Russia?

There's another answer: none.

The problem gets back to how borders are drawn in the first place. As Fargo noted, that area is settled with ethnic Turkmen who are descendents of Turks. Turkey could have told the Russians - and anyone else - that they were going to extend their "airspace" over those villages. They could be looking to re-draw the borders themselves. A few Russian incursions later, with the requisite Turkish warnings and demarches, then this 2-flight gets tasked with dropping bombs in that area. One plane takes a shortcut egress across the actual Turkish airspace and gets shot down. (Still very curious about what weapon was used - that could make a difference in itself.)

It seems to me that Turkey is being careful to say "in its airspace. Like this:

Turkey said the jet had strayed into its airspace but Russian President Vladimir Putin says the plane was flying over Syrian territory.

Both of those statements can be true.

By the way, that's from a link where Russia says they rescued one of the pilots.
Missing Russian jet pilot 'alive and well' in Syria - BBC News

 

[croy]

Looks like Russia is having nuked turkey for Thanksgiving!

 

[T.Lex]

Some more context, back from October.
http://theaviationist.com/2015/10/12/no-russian-aircraft-shot-down-over-syria/

On Oct. 3 and 4 October the Turkish airspace was violated by Russian Air Force Su-30SM and Su-24 aircraft in the Hatay region.
During the first incident, the Russian Su-30SM (initially referred to as a Mig-29 by the Turkish military) maintained a radar lock on one or both the F-16s for a full 5 minutes and 40 seconds before the aircraft departed the Turkish airspace. These incidents were followed by another one, on Oct. 5, when another aircraft, an “unidentified” Mig-29 locked on TuAF F-16s in CAP (Combat Air Patrol) for 4 minutes and 30 seconds.
Following this last episode, the Turkish F-16s began responding to “MiG” radar locks in the same way: by performing lock-ons on the mysterious aircraft flying a bit too close to the border.
Even thought Ankara has said it is not willing to have its aircraft harassed again and won’t accept other violations, nothing at the moment suggests any shot down occurred in the last few days.
The TuAF has never been too “shy” about its military operations air-to-air victories and losses. In Sept. 2013, a TuAF F-16 shot down a Syrian Mi-17 that had violated the Turkish airspace.
On Mar. 23, 2014 a SyAAF Mig-23 that had violated the Turkish airspace by about 1 km was hit by an AIM-120 AMRAAM (Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile) fired by a TuAF F-16C in Combat Air Patrol near the border: a victory celebrated with the kill markings on the F-16C 91-008.

 

[Thor]

This incident was basically an ambush. The Russians have been very open about coordination in the area. Part of the issue about operating in shared airspace but disagreeing on the targets is that Turkey had been making rude noises to Russia over their bombing of Turkmen Syrians. Russian bombers had pushed the boundaries of Turkish airspace before and the Turks had not responded. I expect that this was the response to those earlier violations.

However, Syria has asked Russia to defend its airspace. I'd expect to see them now to start waging a war on behalf of the Kurds. The initial deployment to Syria included four Su-27 Flanker fighters. The next time Turkey flies a mission in Syrian airspace against the Kurds they could very well lose some planes. I also expect to see a lot of Russian made MANPADS to start showing up.

And here we are flying fighters out of Turkey. Even with our hog tied ROE we could end up in the middle of this mess toot sweet. That Russian Cruiser...basically their version of an AEGIS system...how will they sort out the US flown US made planes vs the Turk flown US made planes? It's not like we're going to give them the keys to our modes and codes for IFF/SIFF.

Things have gotten messy. The current squatters in our government are laughing behind their hands.

 

[T.Lex]

This incident was basically an ambush.

I don't think its fair to call it an ambush.

If a guy keeps cutting across your yard to beat the snot out of the next door neighbor, and you keep telling him that the next time he cuts across your yard to beat the snot out of the next door neighbor, you're going to shoot him, then then next time he cuts across your yard and beats the snot out of the next door neighbor, and you shoot him when he's coming back through your yard... its hard to call that an ambush.

(And yes, that is one of the worst sentences I think I've ever written.)

However, Syria has asked Russia to defend its airspace. I'd expect to see them now to start waging a war on behalf of the Kurds. The initial deployment to Syria included four Su-27 Flanker fighters. The next time Turkey flies a mission in Syrian airspace against the Kurds they could very well lose some planes. I also expect to see a lot of Russian made MANPADS to start showing up....how will they sort out the US flown US made planes vs the Turk flown US made planes? It's not like we're going to give them the keys to our modes and codes for IFF/SIFF.

Frankly, I'm surprised there weren't Fulcrums or Flankers flying escort - and I believe they are now. But how would that play out? Are they going to pre-emptively launch when an F-16 locks on to a Russian or Syrian craft? Will they be locking on themselves?

Messy is an understatement!

And Russia is already sending more advanced anti-air platforms, to the area, but I doubt MANPADs will be there until there are Syrian/Russian ground troops in the area. Right now, those areas are Daesh/Turkmen/Kurdish controlled. Longer term, though, you are probably right.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Now who's lying? The US said there were warnings... (but 10 warnings in a span of 10 seconds? Come on now... inclined to believe the US is lying here)

But, Russia saying no warnings would also be a good lie.

 

[T.Lex]

Now who's lying? The US said there were warnings... (but 10 warnings in a span of 10 seconds? Come on now... inclined to believe the US is lying here)

But, Russia saying no warnings would also be a good lie.

Again, it depends.

The TuAF pilots or ground control could've been "warning" the Russians not to come into Turkish airspace when they were very close to it.

Suspicious guy outside your window.
"Don't come in or I'll shoot!"
Repeat 9 times.
Dude comes in.
Boom.

Keep in mind that area is probably saturated with radars. There aren't really any surprises when it comes to what's in the air and where it is (generally). The Turks and US knew the Russians were in the area, and what they were doing. They saw the mission setting up. They saw the ground attack being executed. They probably saw the tracks of how the Russians were going to egress.

That's where Thor's point of an "ambush" comes in (I think). By the time it mattered, there was no surprise about where the Russian plane was.

 

[T.Lex]

Link to alleged audio of at least a couple warnings, in English with a thick accent.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/listen-dramatic-moment-turkey-warns-6896084#rlabs=51 p$2

My own partial transcript - they basically follow a script:

{something something} position {something} 020* radial 26 miles, this is Turkish Air Force speaking on guard** you are approaching Turkish air space. Change your heading south immediately.

* This could be a transponder identifier or something established in the deconfliction rules established last month.

*"Guard" refers to a basically open channel that flights are supposed to monitor - 121.5 or 243 mhz.

ETA:
Look at this graphic:

If the Russian plane really kept that heading for that long, there was really no doubt he would cross into Turkey. Plenty of time - and need - for warnings.

 

[Thor]

Yeah, this specific shoot was an ambush. The Turks, it appears, launched to shoot this a/c down for violating its airspace. This is generally an action of countries that are at war with each other, not just in disagreement about targets in another country or where the border is. We intercept and escort airplanes out of our airspace we don't shoot them down unless they are threatening us in some way.

There was also a hot-line that could have been used to warn him off that the Russians say 'didn't ring'. It also begs the question of what frequency the Turks were warning them on.

Either way, the players in this area...pretty much all of them...are not known for acting professionally and not pushing others around. The Russians are pushing the Turks who are pushing back. We're in a crowded field where the players are all starting to take swings at each other.

 

[Birds Away]

They use Military Air Distress for warnings. All military aircraft are supposed to monitor it. It is commonly referred to as the "guard" frequency. The Turks, as I said in post #2, shot this plane down because it was attacking their Turkmen allies. They had complained to the Russians about this before and were ignored. The Turks used this to get their point across. I think the communication was received.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

They use Military Air Distress for warnings. All military aircraft are supposed to monitor it. It is commonly referred to as the "guard" frequency. The Turks, as I said in post #2, shot this plane down because it was attacking their Turkmen allies. They had complained to the Russians about this before and were ignored. The Turks used this to get their point across. I think the communication was received.

And this is why I expect nothing "war-like" to come from this. NATO or no NATO... it's just slapping the wrist of the bear and telling him to back off. He won't go to war over it. He'll act all puffed up and mad back in Russia

 

[T.Lex]

Yeah, this specific shoot was an ambush. The Turks, it appears, launched to shoot this a/c down for violating its airspace. This is generally an action of countries that are at war with each other, not just in disagreement about targets in another country or where the border is. We intercept and escort airplanes out of our airspace we don't shoot them down unless they are threatening us in some way.

I think some clarification is necessary. Russian planes don't fly over Florida, or Alaska. They fly in our coastal airspace - territorial waters.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters

Unless I'm mistaken - and I tend to follow these things pretty well - those Bears we always hear about are intercepted on approach to our territorial waters - 12 miles, give or take.

National airspace uses the same idea:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airspace

Land borders are different. The land-border is an absolute sovereignty issue.

There was also a hot-line that could have been used to warn him off that the Russians say 'didn't ring'.

This time. Clearly, Turkey has been quite vocal over the last few months about Russians violating their airspace. How many times do they need to say something before it becomes clear that Russia is ignoring them?

Either way, the players in this area...pretty much all of them...are not known for acting professionally and not pushing others around. The Russians are pushing the Turks who are pushing back. We're in a crowded field where the players are all starting to take swings at each other.

No argument there.

 

[Thor]

Thanks for the graphic T.Lex. They were transmitting on Guard in English which is the NATO control standard (actually unusual for the Turks to be even moderately readable on the radio). I wonder how much English the Russian pilot knew. Or if Russian military aircraft have a dedicated Guard channel.

 

[T.Lex]

And this is why I expect nothing "war-like" to come from this. NATO or no NATO... it's just slapping the wrist of the bear and telling him to back off. He won't go to war over it. He'll act all puffed up and mad back in Russia

This time.

The situation is more ripe for something beyond Putin's direct control. Will he stop blowing up Turkmen rebels? Well... they've already gone back to doing that. What will Turkey do if the same situation develops? They've drawn blood, with no real downside.

As Thor (I think) mentioned, I believe we have the same aircraft - F-16 - flying from Italy, on missions in Syria. Even if it is other aircraft, the problem is that Russia now has a tit-for-tat argument that any plane it shoots down is to protect Syrian sovereignty.

 

[T.Lex]

Thanks for the graphic T.Lex. They were transmitting on Guard in English which is the NATO control standard (actually unusual for the Turks to be even moderately readable on the radio). I wonder how much English the Russian pilot knew. Or if Russian military aircraft have a dedicated Guard channel.

Russian pilots are trained - about the same as other nationalities - in "aviation-English." So, it is not great. It would probably take 10x to understand it.

And, I've gotta believe that the guard freq would have been established in the deconfliction discussions. If not... then that adds a different layer of enmity between the parties - they can't even agree on the simple stuff.

 

[Thor]

Land borders are different. The land-border is an absolute sovereignty issue.

This is true, but even so it would take orders from the top to engage in a shoot down. Even if a Tu-95 flew over the mainland we would intercept, escort, possibly force to land. Shooting it down is a big step up from rude language.